Los pegostes de Cronos

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Bonos/deuda de PEMEX de 1,000 millones de Euros!

Bonos de Pemex de mil millones de euros
Financiarán su gasto de inversión y otras operaciones

— Petróleos Mexicanos emitió ayer bonos por un monto total de mil millones de euros en el mercado internacional, cerca de 20 mil millones de pesos, los cuales se destinarán a financiar su gasto de inversión y operaciones de financiamiento.

Los bonos están a un plazo de siete años, con vencimiento en enero de 2017, y el cupón se fijó en 5.5% con un rendimiento al inversionista de 5.623 por ciento, informó la paraestatal.

También indicó que esta emisión forma parte de las actividades de fondeo de Pemex consideradas en su programa de financiamiento de 2009 y permite a la paraestatal diversificar sus fuentes para captar recursos.

El bono se colocó principalmente entre inversionistas internacionales de Europa y los agentes colocadores de la emisión fueron Deutsche Bank AG y Calyon, y como co-agente actuó Barclays Bank PLC.

Previo a esta emisión, directivos de Pemex se reunieron con inversionistas europeos para presentarles los principales aspectos operativos y financieros de la empresa.

Los recursos obtenidos se utilizarán principalmente para el financiamiento de gasto de inversión, así como en operaciones de refinanciamiento de Pemex.

+ Sobresueldo a los 114,000 miembros del STPRM...

La paraestatal informó también que desde el 1 de agosto pasado sus 114,000 trabajadores sindicalizados están recibiendo un sobresueldo de 21.4% por “fomentar y elevar la productividad”, sobre la base del salario ordinario que perciben.

En momentos en que el propio presidente Felipe Calderón ha llamado a todos los sectores productivos del país a hacer un esfuerzo y colaborar para afrontar la crisis económica, los petroleros continúan recibiendo prebendas por encima del resto de los trabajadores del país.

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Desgobierno:Agoniza industria petroquímica nacional

Agoniza petroquímica nacional

Actualmente esta industria consume apenas el 20% de sus insumos en el país, el resto es importado, cuando en los ochenta era lo ocntrario

La falta de integración de cadenas productivas y la pérdida de 80% del mercado, son las causas por lo que la industria petroquímica nacional agoniza, aseguran especialistas del Tecnológico de Monterrey y del Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad (Imco) consultados por El Economista.

A la actual administración de Petróleos Mexicanos que encabeza Juan José Suárez Coppel, le tocaría dar el tiro de gracia a este sector, pues no hay señales de que la paraestatal reactive su producción y atraiga nuevas inversiones, afirman.

“El nivel máximo de integración nacional de la industria petroquímica se dio en los años 80 cuando alcanzó 80% de integración, es decir, que sólo 20% de los insumos venían del exterior y la mayor parte de las materias primas eran de origen nacional. Hoy estamos al revés, 20% es nacional y 80% de importación, eso es una pérdida de mercado”, explica Leticia Armenta.

La directora del Centro de Análisis Económico del Departamento de Economía, División Negocios, del Tecnológico de Monterrey, campus Estado de México, considera que la industria sigue deteriorándose y para que cambie tiene que haber una voluntad política del Director de Pemex que incentive los precios, calidad y volumen de los insumos a los privados, pero “no percibo que se dé esto”.

Antonio Bargés, director del Imco, dice que el problema es que la industria “agoniza” y las empresas están cerrando plantas por falta de materias primas, lo que afecta competitividad del país.

“Un caso de ello es Celanese, la planta que tiene en La Cangrejera está casi desmantelada”.

Además, gran parte de las compañías químicas y petroquímicas están pasando de ser productoras a distribuidoras.

Actualmente las importaciones de las materias primas de este sector representan 18,000 millones de dólares y se espera que al cierre del 2009 esta cifra alcance los 19,000 millones de dólares.

De acuerdo con Pemex Petroquímica -controla insumos básicos reservados al Estado, como es el etano, materia prima que sirve para producir productos como telas, punturas, plásticos- la producción ha caído de 1999 a la fecha 40%, al pasar de 13 millones 127,000 toneladas de petroquímicos a 8 millones 208,000 toneladas.

Actualmente se produce casi la mitad de lo que se tenía hace 10 años y se importa una gran parte de las necesidades de más de 30 ramas industriales.

La participación de la industria química y petroquímica en el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) ha disminuido de 5.2% que tuvo en 1995 al 1.9 en el 2008.

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Re: Pero el petróleo ... sí es de los mexicanos

Saipem no acredita capacidad técnica, mientras Samsung hizo la oferta más baja
Adjudicará Pemex dos grandes contratos a empresa más cara y aparentemente sin experiencia

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) se apresta a adjudicar de manera directa el contrato para la construcción de dos plantas desulfuradoras en las refinerías de Tula y Salamanca, para elaborar gasolinas con ultra bajo azufre (UBA), a la empresa Saipem, pese a que la oferta de ésta es superior en 50 millones de dólares a la formulada por la compañía Samsung, que presentó la cotización más baja.

El contrato, por 458 millones de dólares (unos 6 mil millones de pesos), sería el primero de gran magnitud adjudicado por la paraestatal bajo la dirección de Juan José Suárez Coppel.
El Instituto Mexicano de Auditoría Técnica (IMAT), testigo social del proceso licitatorio designado por la propia paraestatal, concluyó que la asociación de Sainmexicana /Saipem "no acredita el requerimiento de experiencia y capacidad técnica establecido en las bases de licitación".

Esta obra permitiría a Pemex cumplir con la norma oficial mexicana (NOM) 086 Semarnat-Sener para la elaboración de combustibles limpios, que se prevé puedan distribuirse en el territorio nacional a partir de 2014 .

El 11 de septiembre de 2008 Pemex emitió la convocatoria pública internacional para la ingeniería, procura y construcción de dos plantas desulfuradoras de gasolina en las refinerías Miguel Hidalgo, en Tula de Allende, Hidalgo, e Ingeniero Antonio M. Amor, en Salamanca, Guanajuato. Estas plantas tendrían una capacidad de elaboración de 30 mil y 25 mil barriles diarios de gasolinas, respectivamente, con un máximo de 10 partes de azufre por millón.

Tortuoso proceso

En el concurso se inscribieron cinco consorcios: la coreana Samsumg, que ofreció un precio de 408 millones de dólares; la italiana Saipem, con 458 millones; Ica-Fluor Daniel, con 508 millones; Isolux-Jantesa, con 530 millones, y ACS-Dragados, con una oferta de 550 millones de dólares.

Después de un tortuoso proceso que incluyó diversas vistas al lugar de la edificación, 17 juntas de aclaraciones y la presentación de propuestas y diferimientos para dar el fallo, Pemex resolvió declarar desierto el concurso por considerar que ninguna de las propuestas reunía los requisitos técnicos ni económicos. Posteriormente Saipem e ICA decidieron seguir un proceso de inconformidad en junio de 2009 ante la Secretaría de la Función Pública, el cual fue desechado.

La organización no gubernamental Contraloría Ciudadana para la Rendición de Cuentas, en sus conclusiones y recomendaciones sobre el proceso identifica diversas inconsistencias y señala: "La entidad (Pemex) no tuvo lista toda la información técnica relativa a esta licitación en el momento de la publicación de la convocatoria, lo que originó que se hicieran muchas modificaciones a dicha información, generando un proceso licitatorio de casi siete meses de duración, con el consecuente desgaste tanto de la entidad como de los licitantes que participaron. Se recomienda, para licitaciones futuras, tener toda la información completa antes de la publicación de la convocatoria, en aras del mejoramiento de la planeación de los procesos de licitación".

Abunda: "El alto número de preguntas, así como la naturaleza de las mismas, indica, en opinión del testigo social, que no hubo una preparación en detalle de las bases de licitación, a pesar de que existió un tiempo razonable para la preparación de las mismas. Para futuras licitaciones se recomienda una revisión exhaustiva de las bases de licitación antes de proceder a su publicación".

El dictamen de la dirección corporativa de ingeniería y desarrollo de proyectos de Pemex recomienda la adjudicación directa del contrato a Saimexicana-Saipem, pese a tener un precio 50 millones de dólares superior a la oferta más competitiva y no acreditar la experiencia y capacidad técnica necesarias...

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Re: Maquio...

Tanto MAQUIO como FOX antes de 1982,NO eran'PANISTAS',sino se volvieron,sobre todo debido a la desastrosa e ilegal'nacionalización bancaria'de JOLOPO,que fue de hecho,el'asesinato del capitalismo mexicano',más que la propia CRISIS de INSOLVENCIA NACIONAL ocasionada sobre todo por el excesivo endeudamiento externo,tanto de PEMEX,como de todo el gobierno mexicano,+ inumerables empresas paraestatales!!!

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Re: ~~Juguemos Bilingüe~~SCENARIO PLANNING!

Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces.

In business applications, the emphasis on gaming the behavior of opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature).
At Royal Dutch/Shell for example, scenario planning was viewed as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world, prior to formulating specific strategies.

Scenario planning may involve aspects of Systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, unprecedented regulations or inventions. Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario story lines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated. In these cases when scenario planning is integrated with a systems thinking approach to scenario development, it is sometimes referred to as structural dynamics.

* 1 Crafting scenarios
These combinations and permutations of fact and related social changes are called "scenarios." The scenarios usually include plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day. Any particular scenario is unlikely. However, future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable. Scenario planning helps policy-makers to anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilities in organizations and methods.

When disclosed years in advance, these weaknesses can be avoided or their impacts reduced more effectively than if a similar real-life problems were considered under duress of an emergency. For example, a company may discover that it needs to change contractual terms to protect against a new class of risks, or collect cash reserves to purchase anticipated technologies or equipment. Flexible business continuity plans with "PREsponse protocols" help cope with similar operational problems and deliver measurable future value-added.

Zero-sum game scenarios

Strategic military intelligence organizations also construct scenarios. The methods and organizations are almost identical, except that scenario planning is applied to a wider variety of problems than merely military and political problems.

As in military intelligence, the chief challenge of scenario planning is to find out the real needs of policy-makers, when policy-makers may not themselves know what they need to know, or may not know how to describe the information that they really want.

Good analysts design wargames so that policy makers have great flexibility and freedom to adapt their simulated organizations. Then these simulated organizations are "stressed" by the scenarios as a game plays out. Usually, particular groups of facts become more clearly important. These insights enable intelligence organizations to refine and repackage real information more precisely to better-serve the policy-makers' real-life needs. Usually the games' simulated time runs hundreds of times faster than real life, so policy-makers experience several years of policy decisions, and their simulated effects, in less than a day.

This chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life. Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a safe, unthreatening, game-like environment, while responding to a wide variety of concretely-presented situations based on facts. This is an opportunity to "rehearse the future," an opportunity that does not present itself in day-to-day operations where every action and decision counts.

How military scenario planning or scenario thinking is done

1. Decide on the key question to be answered by the analysis. By doing this, it is possible to assess whether scenario planning is preferred over the other methods. If the question is based on small changes or a very few number of elements, other more formalized methods may be more useful.
2. Set the time and scope of the analysis. Take into consideration how quickly changes have happened in the past, and try to assess to what degree it is possible to predict common trends in demographics, product life cycles et al. A usual timeframe can be five to 10 years.
3. Identify major stakeholders. Decide who will be affected and have an interest in the possible outcomes. Identify their current interests, whether and why these interests have changed over time in the past.
4. Map basic trends and driving forces. This includes industry, economic, political, technological, legal and societal trends. Assess to what degree these trends will affect your research question. Describe each trend, how and why it will affect the organisation. In this step of the process, brainstorming is commonly used, where all trends that can be thought of are presented before they are assessed, to capture possible group thinking and tunnel vision.
5. Find key uncertainties. Map the driving forces on two axes, assessing each force on an uncertain/(relatively) predictable and important/unimportant scale. All driving forces that are considered unimportant are discarded. Important driving forces that are relatively predictable (f.ex. demographics) can be included in any scenario, so the scenarios should not be based on these. This leaves you with a number of important and unpredictable driving forces. At this point, it is also useful to assess whether any linkages between driving forces exist, and rule out any "impossible" scenarios (f.ex. full employment and zero inflation).
6. Check for the possibility to group the linked forces and if possible, reduce the forces to the two most important. (To allow the scenarios to be presented in a neat xy-diagram)
7. Identify the extremes of the possible outcomes of the (two) driving forces and check the dimensions for consistency and plausibility. Three key points should be assessed:
1. Time frame: are the trends compatible within the time frame in question?
2. Internal consistency: do the forces describe uncertainties that can construct probable scenarios.
3. Vs the stakeholders: are any stakeholders currently in disequilibrium compared to their preferred situation, and will this evolve the scenario? Is it possible to create probable scenarios when considering the stakeholders? This is most important when creating macro-scenarios where governments, large organisations et al. will try to influence the outcome.
8. Define the scenarios, plotting them on a grid if possible. Usually, 2 to 4 scenarios are constructed. The current situation does not need to be in the middle of the diagram (inflation may already be low), and possible scenarios may keep one (or more) of the forces relatively constant, especially if using three or more driving forces. One approach can be to create all positive elements into one scenario and all negative elements (relative to the current situation) in another scenario, then refining these. In the end, try to avoid pure best-case and worst-case scenarios.
9. Write out the scenarios. Narrate what has happened and what the reasons can be for the proposed situation. Try to include good reasons why the changes have occurred as this helps the further analysis. Finally, give each scenario a descriptive (and catchy) name to ease later reference.
10. Assess the scenarios. Are they relevant for the goal? Are they internally consistent? Are they archetypical? Do they represent relatively stable outcome situations?
11. Identify research needs. Based on the scenarios, assess where more information is needed. Where needed, obtain more information on the motivations of stakeholders, possible innovations that may occur in the industry and so on.
12. Develop quantitative methods. If possible, develop models to help quantify consequences of the various scenarios, such as growth rate, cash flow etc. This step does of course require a significant amount of work compared to the others, and may be left out in back-of-the-envelope-analyses.
13. Converge towards decision scenarios. Retrace the steps above in an iterative process until you reach scenarios which address the fundamental issues facing the organization. Try to assess upsides and downsides of the possible scenarios.

Scenario planning in military applications

Scenario planning is also extremely popular with military planners. Most states' departments of war maintain a continuously-updated series of strategic plans to cope with well-known military or strategic problems. These plans are almost always based on scenarios, and often the plans and scenarios are kept up-to-date by war games, sometimes played out with real troops. This process was first carried out (arguably the method was invented by) the Prussian general staff of the mid-19th century.

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Plan de E.U.A. para intervenir militarmente en México/Scenario Planning!

Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers.
The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces.

In business applications, the emphasis on gaming the behavior of opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature).
At Royal Dutch/Shell for example, scenario planning was viewed as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world, prior to formulating specific strategies.

Scenario planning may involve aspects of Systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops).
The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, unprecedented regulations or inventions.
Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario story lines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated.
In these cases when scenario planning is integrated with a systems thinking approach to scenario development, it is sometimes referred to as structural dynamics.

* 1 Crafting scenarios

These combinations and permutations of fact and related social changes are called "scenarios."
The scenarios usually include plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day.
Any particular scenario is unlikely.
However, future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable. Scenario planning helps policy-makers to anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilities in organizations and methods.

When disclosed years in advance, these weaknesses can be avoided or their impacts reduced more effectively than if a similar real-life problems were considered under duress of an emergency. For example, a company may discover that it needs to change contractual terms to protect against a new class of risks, or collect cash reserves to purchase anticipated technologies or equipment.
Flexible business continuity plans with "PREsponse protocols" help cope with similar operational problems and deliver measurable future value-added.

Zero-sum game scenarios

Strategic military intelligence organizations also construct scenarios. The methods and organizations are almost identical, except that scenario planning is applied to a wider variety of problems than merely military and political problems.

As in military intelligence, the chief challenge of scenario planning is to find out the real needs of policy-makers, when policy-makers may not themselves know what they need to know, or may not know how to describe the information that they really want.

Good analysts design wargames so that policy makers have great flexibility and freedom to adapt their simulated organizations. Then these simulated organizations are "stressed" by the scenarios as a game plays out. Usually, particular groups of facts become more clearly important. These insights enable intelligence organizations to refine and repackage real information more precisely to better-serve the policy-makers' real-life needs.
Usually the games' simulated time runs hundreds of times faster than real life, so policy-makers experience several years of policy decisions, and their simulated effects, in less than a day.

This chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life. Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a safe, unthreatening, game-like environment, while responding to a wide variety of concretely-presented situations based on facts.
This is an opportunity to "rehearse the future," an opportunity that does not present itself in day-to-day operations where every action and decision counts.

How military scenario planning or scenario thinking is done

1. Decide on the key question to be answered by the analysis. By doing this, it is possible to assess whether scenario planning is preferred over the other methods. If the question is based on small changes or a very few number of elements, other more formalized methods may be more useful.
2. Set the time and scope of the analysis. Take into consideration how quickly changes have happened in the past, and try to assess to what degree it is possible to predict common trends in demographics, product life cycles et al. A usual timeframe can be five to 10 years.
3. Identify major stakeholders. Decide who will be affected and have an interest in the possible outcomes. Identify their current interests, whether and why these interests have changed over time in the past.
4. Map basic trends and driving forces. This includes industry, economic, political, technological, legal and societal trends. Assess to what degree these trends will affect your research question. Describe each trend, how and why it will affect the organisation. In this step of the process, brainstorming is commonly used, where all trends that can be thought of are presented before they are assessed, to capture possible group thinking and tunnel vision.
5. Find key uncertainties. Map the driving forces on two axes, assessing each force on an uncertain/(relatively) predictable and important/unimportant scale. All driving forces that are considered unimportant are discarded. Important driving forces that are relatively predictable (f.ex. demographics) can be included in any scenario, so the scenarios should not be based on these. This leaves you with a number of important and unpredictable driving forces. At this point, it is also useful to assess whether any linkages between driving forces exist, and rule out any "impossible" scenarios (f.ex. full employment and zero inflation).
6. Check for the possibility to group the linked forces and if possible, reduce the forces to the two most important. (To allow the scenarios to be presented in a neat xy-diagram)
7. Identify the extremes of the possible outcomes of the (two) driving forces and check the dimensions for consistency and plausibility. Three key points should be assessed:
-1. Time frame: are the trends compatible within the time frame in question?
-2. Internal consistency: do the forces describe uncertainties that can construct probable scenarios.
-3. Vs the stakeholders: are any stakeholders currently in disequilibrium compared to their preferred situation, and will this evolve the scenario? Is it possible to create probable scenarios when considering the stakeholders? This is most important when creating macro-scenarios where governments, large organisations et al. will try to influence the outcome.
8. Define the scenarios, plotting them on a grid if possible. Usually, 2 to 4 scenarios are constructed. The current situation does not need to be in the middle of the diagram (inflation may already be low), and possible scenarios may keep one (or more) of the forces relatively constant, especially if using three or more driving forces. One approach can be to create all positive elements into one scenario and all negative elements (relative to the current situation) in another scenario, then refining these. In the end, try to avoid pure best-case and worst-case scenarios.
9. Write out the scenarios. Narrate what has happened and what the reasons can be for the proposed situation. Try to include good reasons why the changes have occurred as this helps the further analysis. Finally, give each scenario a descriptive (and catchy) name to ease later reference.
10. Assess the scenarios. Are they relevant for the goal? Are they internally consistent? Are they archetypical? Do they represent relatively stable outcome situations?
11. Identify research needs. Based on the scenarios, assess where more information is needed. Where needed, obtain more information on the motivations of stakeholders, possible innovations that may occur in the industry and so on.
12. Develop quantitative methods. If possible, develop models to help quantify consequences of the various scenarios, such as growth rate, cash flow etc. This step does of course require a significant amount of work compared to the others, and may be left out in back-of-the-envelope-analyses.
13. Converge towards decision scenarios. Retrace the steps above in an iterative process until you reach scenarios which address the fundamental issues facing the organization. Try to assess upsides and downsides of the possible scenarios.

Scenario planning in military applications

Scenario planning is also extremely popular with military planners.
Most states' departments of war maintain a continuously-updated series of strategic plans to cope with well-known military or strategic problems.
These plans are almost always based on scenarios, and often the plans and scenarios are kept up-to-date by war games, sometimes played out with real troops.
This process was first carried out (arguably the method was invented by) the Prussian general staff of the mid-19th century.

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Re: Palabras encadenadas en ingles.

Mystery fiction is a loosely-defined term that is often used as a synonym for detective fiction — in other words a novel or short story in which a detective (either professional or amateur) investigates and solves a crime.
The term "mystery fiction" may sometimes be limited to the subset of detective stories in which the emphasis is on the puzzle element and its logical solution (cf. whodunit), as a contrast to hardboiled detective stories, which focus on action and gritty realism.
However, in more general usage "mystery" may be used to describe any form of crime fiction, even if there is no mystery to be solved. For example, the Mystery Writers of America describes itself as "the premier organization for mystery writers, professionals allied to the crime writing field, aspiring crime writers, and those who are devoted to the genre." However, a mystery story can also be a story that has a villain that is ghostly and unknown. In this type of mystery story it is just word of mouth that passes on the story from one person to another and the being that is the villain may never be found by the reader or detective in the story, hence the name mystery fiction [1].

Some mystery books include digging up the past or revealing the truth, such as the book "The Invention of Hugo Cabret."

Although normally associated with the crime genre, the term "mystery fiction" may in certain situations refer to a completely different genre, where the focus is on supernatural mystery (even if no crime is involved).
This usage was common in the pulp magazines of the 1930s and 1940s, where titles such as Dime Mystery, Thrilling Mystery and Spicy Mystery offered what at the time were described as "weird menace" stories – supernatural horror in the vein of Grand Guignol. This contrasted with parallel titles of the same names which contained conventional hardboiled crime fiction. The first use of "mystery" in this sense was by Dime Mystery, which started out as an ordinary crime fiction magazine but switched to "weird menace" during the latter part of 1933.[2]

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Stranger than'Mystery fiction': Antes y en ingles y con computacion.....

Mystery fiction is a loosely-defined term that is often used as a synonym for detective fiction — in other words a novel or short story in which a detective (either professional or amateur) investigates and solves a crime.
The term "mystery fiction" may sometimes be limited to the subset of detective stories in which the emphasis is on the puzzle element and its logical solution (cf. whodunit), as a contrast to hardboiled detective stories, which focus on action and gritty realism.
However, in more general usage "mystery" may be used to describe any form of crime fiction, even if there is no mystery to be solved.
For example, the Mystery Writers of America describes itself as "the premier organization for mystery writers, professionals allied to the crime writing field, aspiring crime writers, and those who are devoted to the genre."
However, a mystery story can also be a story that has a villain that is ghostly and unknown. In this type of mystery story it is just word of mouth that passes on the story from one person to another and the being that is the villain may never be found by the reader or detective in the story, hence the name mystery fiction [1].

Some mystery books include digging up the past or revealing the truth, such as the book "The Invention of Hugo Cabret."

Although normally associated with the crime genre, the term "mystery fiction" may in certain situations refer to a completely different genre, where the focus is on supernatural mystery (even if no crime is involved).
This usage was common in the pulp magazines of the 1930s and 1940s, where titles such as Dime Mystery, Thrilling Mystery and Spicy Mystery offered what at the time were described as "weird menace" stories – supernatural horror in the vein of Grand Guignol. This contrasted with parallel titles of the same names which contained conventional hardboiled crime fiction. The first use of "mystery" in this sense was by Dime Mystery, which started out as an ordinary crime fiction magazine but switched to "weird menace" during the latter part of 1933.[2]

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Re: Que haces antes de dormir?

El ENSUEÑO es parte de,y,generalmente,sigue al SUEÑO como parte del mismo!!!

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Re: Antes y Despues

El 1er termino de una CONSECUENCIA es el ANTECEDENTE!!

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Sede olímpica 2016:Rio de Janeiro!!!

Gana Río de Janeiro sede para los Juegos olímpicos 2016

Tokio había avanzado a la segunda rueda y Chicago fue eliminada sorpresivamente en la primera votación
-Enmudece Chicago al perder sede olímpica de 2016

Copenhague.- Río de Janeiro, la festiva ciudad carioca famosa por sus playas, sus mujeres y su música, ganó el derecho a organizar los Juegos Olímpicos del 2016 erigiéndose en la representante de Sudamérica.

En una tercera y decisiva rueda de votaciones de los 103 miembros del Comité Olímpico Internacional, Río superó a Madrid.

Tokio había avanzado a la segunda rueda y Chicago fue eliminada sorpresivamente en la primera votación.

El anuncio lo formuló el presidente del COI Jacques Rogge quien extrajo un sobre con el nombre de la candidata ganadora. El anuncio tuvo lugar aproximadamente una hora después de las votaciones.

El resultado final fue decisivo: el COI dijo que Río venció ampliamente a Madrid por 66 votos contra 32. Chicago apenas consiguió 18 votos en la primera rueda, mientras que Tokio avanzó a la segunda con 22. Después de la primera rueda Madrid había conseguido 28 votos contra 26 de Brasil.

En la segunda rueda Tokio fue eliminada con 20 votos. Río quedó primera con 46 y Madrid 29.

Río, la ciudad del carnaval y el samba, apeló a la conciencia de los miembros del COI: la ciudad sostuvo que era injusto que Sudamérica, que nunca organizó una olimpíada, quedara postergada una vez más ante Europa, Asia y Norteamérica, con varias en su haber. Ahora Africa quedará como el convidado de piedra.

"Es hora de paliar este desequilibrio", dijo el presidente brasileño Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva antes de la votación.

Lula quedó sepultado en medio de una alborozada representación brasileña después que Rogge anunció el triunfo de Río. El legendario rey del fútbol Pelé no pudo contener las lágrimas. Lula y Pelé se estrecharon en un abrazo.

El presidente brasileño dijo posteriormente en una conferencia de prensa, en la que tuvo que enjugar sus lágrimas varias veces, que Río "merece la victoria porque es una ciudad muy sufrida", y agregó que "necesitábamos una oportunidad para demostrar que somos una gran nación".

En la famosa playa Copacabana, de Río, donde la ciudad planea organizar la competencia olímpica de vóleibol en el 2016, unas 50.000 estallaron en un desborde de entusiasmo al conocer el resultado. Y eso fue el comienzo de la fiesta.

Pero la euforia no oculta el hecho de que la candidatura de Río no carece de riesgos. Debido a la elevada tasa delictiva, la seguridad será una preocupación primordial en el 2016. Y preparar la ciudad para los Juegos costará miles de millones de dólares, suma que los críticos dicen hubiera sido mejor invertida para aliviar los problemas sociales de la ciudad.

Brasil organizará los dos mayores acontecimientos deportivos mundiales en sólo dos años: la Copa Mundial de fútbol en el 2014 y las olimpíadas en el 2016.

El inesperado ascenso de Madrid hasta la rueda final se produjo después de una emotiva exhortación del ex presidente del COI, Juan Antonio Samaranch, quien recordó a los miembros del comité que a los 89 años "estoy muy cerca de mis últimos momentos" para pedirles que respaldaran a la capital española.

Samaranch dirigió el COI durante 21 años antes de que Rogge se hiciera cargo en el 2001.

Chicago había sido considerada una de las favoritas y recibió el mayor nivel posible de apoyo, el mismo presidente estadounidense Barack Obama. Pero su breve estada en la capital danesa, donde se llevó a cabo la votación, pudo haber sido contraproducente...

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Re: Palabras encadenadas en ingles.

A fact is a pragmatic truth, a statement that can, at least in theory, be checked and confirmed. Facts are often contrasted with opinions and beliefs, statements which are held to be true, but are not amenable to pragmatic confirmation.[1][2][3]

Etymology and usage

The word fact derives from the Latin Factum, and was first used in English with the same meaning: "a thing done or performed", a use that is now obsolete.[4] The common usage of, "something that has really occurred or is the case", dates from the middle of the sixteenth century.[5]

Fact is sometimes used as synonymous with truth or reality, as distinguishable from conclusions or opinions. This use is found in such phrases Matter of fact,[6] and "... not history, nor fact, but imagination."

Fact also indicates a matter under discussion deemed to be true or correct, such as to emphasize a point or prove a disputed issue; (e.g., "... the fact of the matter is ...").[7][8]

Alternatively, fact may also indicate an allegation or stipulation of something that may or may not be a "true fact",[9] (e.g., "the author's facts are not trustworthy"). This alternate usage, although contested by some, has a long history in standard English.[10]

Fact may also indicate findings derived through a process of evaluation, including review of testimony, direct observation, or otherwise; as distinguishable from matters of inference or speculation.[11] This use is reflected in the terms "fact-find" and "fact-finder" (e.g., "set up a fact-finding commission").[12]

Facts may be checked by reason, experiment, personal experience, or may be argued from authority. Roger Bacon wrote "If in other sciences we should arrive at certainty without doubt and truth without error, it behooves us to place the foundations of knowledge in mathematics."[13]

Fact in philosophy

In philosophy, the concept fact is considered in epistemology and ontology. Questions of ~~~~~~ivity and truth are closely associated with questions of fact. A "fact" can be defined as something which is the case, that is, the state of affairs[14] reported by a true proposition.[15][16]

Facts may be understood as that which makes a true sentence true. For example, the statement "Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system" is made true by the fact Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system. Facts may also be understood as those things to which a true sentence refers. The statement "Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system" is about the fact Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system.[17]

Misunderstanding of the difference between fact and theory sometimes leads to fallacy in rhetoric, in which one person will say his or her claim is factual whereas the opponent's claim is just theory.
Such statements indicate confusion as to the meanings of both words, suggesting the speaker believes that fact means "truth," and theory means "speculation."[

Correspondence and the slingshot argument

Some versions of the correspondence theory of truth hold that what makes a sentence true is that it corresponds to a fact.[18] This theory presupposes the existence of an ~~~~~~ive world.

The Slingshot argument claims to show that all true statements stand for the same thing - the truth value true. If this argument holds, and facts are taken to be what true statements stand for, then we reach the counter-intuitive conclusion that there is only one fact - "the truth".[19]

Compound facts

Any non-trivial true statement about reality is necessarily an abstraction composed of a complex of ~~~~~~s and properties or relations.[20]

Difficulties arise, however, in attempting to identify the constituent parts of negative, modal, disjunctive, or moral facts.[21]

The fact-value distinction

Moral philosophers since David Hume have debated whether values are ~~~~~~ive, and thus factual. In A Treatise of Human Nature Hume pointed out there is no obvious way for a series of statements about what ought to be the case to be derived from a series of statements of what is the case. Those who insist there is a logical gulf between facts and values, such that it is fallacious to attempt to derive values from facts, include G. E. Moore, who called attempting to do so the Naturalistic fallacy.

The factual-counterfactual distinction

Factuality — what has occurred — can also be contrasted with counterfactuality — what might have occurred, but did not. A counterfactual conditional or subjunctive conditional is a conditional (or "if-then") statement indicating what would be the case if events had been other than they actually are. For example, "If Alexander had lived, his empire would have been greater than Rome". This is to be contrasted with an indicative conditional, which indicates what is (in fact) the case if its antecedent is (in fact) true — for example, "if you drink this, it will make you well".

Such sentences are important to Modal logic, especially since the development of Possible world semantics.

Fact in science
Further information: scientific method and philosophy of science

Just as in philosophy, the scientific concept of fact is central to fundamental questions regarding the nature, methods, scope and validity of scientific reasoning.

In the most basic sense, a scientific fact is an ~~~~~~ive and verifiable observation; in contrast with a hypothesis or theory, which is intended to explain or interpret facts.[22] Thus, for example, it is a fact that lighter ~~~~~~s accelerate more quickly toward heavier ~~~~~~s than the reverse, and the theory of gravitation explains why this is so. (See also Evolution as theory and fact.)

Various scholars have offered significant refinements to this basic formulation, some of which are detailed below.
Also, rigorous scientific use of the term "fact" is careful to distinguish: 1) states of affairs in the external world; from 2) assertions of fact that may be considered relevant in scientific analysis. The term is used in both senses in the philosophy of science.[23]

Scholarly inquiry regarding scientific fact

Scholars and clinical researchers in both the social and natural sciences have forwarded numerous questions and theories in clarifying the fundamental nature of scientific fact.[24] Some pertinent issues raised by this inquiry include:

* the process by which "established fact" becomes recognized and accepted as such;[25]
* whether and to what extent "fact" and "theoretic explanation" can be considered truly independent and separable from one another;[26][27]
* to what extent are "facts" influenced by the mere act of observation;[27] and
* to what extent are factual conclusions influenced by history and consensus, rather than a strictly systematic methodology.[28]

Consistent with the theory of confirmation holism, some scholars assert "fact" to be necessarily "theory-laden" to some degree. Thomas Kuhn and others pointed out that knowing what facts to measure, and how to measure them, requires the use of some other theory (e.g., age of fossils is based on radiocarbon dating which is justified by reasoning that radioactive decay follows a Poisson process rather than a Bernoulli process). Similarly, Percy Williams Bridgman is credited with the methodological position known as operationalism, which asserts that all observations are not only influenced, but necessarily defined by the means and assumptions used to measure them.

Fact and the scientific method

Apart from the fundamental inquiry in to the nature of scientific fact, there remain the practical and social considerations of how fact is investigated, established, and substantiated through the proper application of the scientific method.[29]
Scientific facts are generally believed to be independent of the observer: no matter who performs a scientific experiment, all observers will agree on the outcome.[30] In addition to these considerations, there are the social and institutional measures, such as peer review and accreditation, that are intended to promote factual accuracy (among other interests) in scientific study.[31]

Fact in history
Further information: Historiography

A common rhetorical cliché states, "History is written by the winners." This phrase suggests but does not examine the use of facts in the writing of history.

E. H. Carr in his 1961 volume, What is History?, argues that the inherent biases from the gathering of facts makes the ~~~~~~ive truth of any historical perspective idealistic and impossible.
Facts are, "like fish in the Ocean," of which we may only happen to catch a few, only an indication of what is below the surface. Even a dragnet cannot tell us for certain what it would be like to live below the Ocean's surface. Even if we do not discard any facts (or fish) presented, we will always miss the majority; the site of our fishing, the methods undertaken, the weather and even luck play a vital role in what we will catch.
Additionally, the composition of history is inevitably made up by the compilation of many different bias of fact finding - all compounded over time. He concludes that for a historian to attempt a more ~~~~~~ive method, one must accept that history can only aspire to a conversation of the present with the past - and that one's methods of fact gathering should be openly examined.
As with science, historical truth and facts will therefore change over time and reflect only the present consensus (if that).

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El'peso de los hechos'acerca a la verdad,o'a fact,is a fact,is a fact'

A fact is a pragmatic truth, a statement that can, at least in theory, be checked and confirmed. Facts are often contrasted with opinions and beliefs, statements which are held to be true, but are not amenable to pragmatic confirmation.[1][2][3]

Etymology and usage

The word fact derives from the Latin Factum, and was first used in English with the same meaning: "a thing done or performed", a use that is now obsolete.[4] The common usage of, "something that has really occurred or is the case", dates from the middle of the sixteenth century.[5]

Fact is sometimes used as synonymous with truth or reality, as distinguishable from conclusions or opinions. This use is found in such phrases Matter of fact,[6] and "... not history, nor fact, but imagination."

Fact also indicates a matter under discussion deemed to be true or correct, such as to emphasize a point or prove a disputed issue; (e.g., "... the fact of the matter is ...").[7][8]

Alternatively, fact may also indicate an allegation or stipulation of something that may or may not be a "true fact",[9] (e.g., "the author's facts are not trustworthy"). This alternate usage, although contested by some, has a long history in standard English.[10]

Fact may also indicate findings derived through a process of evaluation, including review of testimony, direct observation, or otherwise; as distinguishable from matters of inference or speculation.[11] This use is reflected in the terms "fact-find" and "fact-finder" (e.g., "set up a fact-finding commission").[12]

Facts may be checked by reason, experiment, personal experience, or may be argued from authority. Roger Bacon wrote "If in other sciences we should arrive at certainty without doubt and truth without error, it behooves us to place the foundations of knowledge in mathematics."[13]

Fact in philosophy

In philosophy, the concept fact is considered in epistemology and ontology. Questions of factivity and truth are closely associated with questions of fact. A "fact" can be defined as something which is the case, that is, the state of affairs[14] reported by a true proposition.[15][16]

Facts may be understood as that which makes a true sentence true. For example, the statement "Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system" is made true by the fact Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system. Facts may also be understood as those things to which a true sentence refers. The statement "Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system" is about the fact Jupiter is the largest planet in the solar system.[17]

Misunderstanding of the difference between fact and theory sometimes leads to fallacy in rhetoric, in which one person will say his or her claim is factual whereas the opponent's claim is just theory.
Such statements indicate confusion as to the meanings of both words, suggesting the speaker believes that fact means "truth," and theory means "speculation."[

Correspondence and the slingshot argument

Some versions of the correspondence theory of truth hold that what makes a sentence true is that it corresponds to a fact.[18] This theory presupposes the existence of an factive world.

The Slingshot argument claims to show that all true statements stand for the same thing - the truth value true. If this argument holds, and facts are taken to be what true statements stand for, then we reach the counter-intuitive conclusion that there is only one fact - "the truth".[19]

Compound facts

Any non-trivial true statement about reality is necessarily an abstraction composed of a complex of facts and properties or relations.[20]

Difficulties arise, however, in attempting to identify the constituent parts of negative, modal, disjunctive, or moral facts.[21]

The fact-value distinction

Moral philosophers since David Hume have debated whether values are factive, and thus factual. In A Treatise of Human Nature Hume pointed out there is no obvious way for a series of statements about what ought to be the case to be derived from a series of statements of what is the case. Those who insist there is a logical gulf between facts and values, such that it is fallacious to attempt to derive values from facts, include G. E. Moore, who called attempting to do so the Naturalistic fallacy.

The factual-counterfactual distinction

Factuality — what has occurred — can also be contrasted with counterfactuality — what might have occurred, but did not. A counterfactual conditional or subjunctive conditional is a conditional (or "if-then") statement indicating what would be the case if events had been other than they actually are. For example, "If Alexander had lived, his empire would have been greater than Rome". This is to be contrasted with an indicative conditional, which indicates what is (in fact) the case if its antecedent is (in fact) true — for example, "if you drink this, it will make you well".

Such sentences are important to Modal logic, especially since the development of Possible world semantics.

Fact in science
Further information: scientific method and philosophy of science

Just as in philosophy, the scientific concept of fact is central to fundamental questions regarding the nature, methods, scope and validity of scientific reasoning.

In the most basic sense, a scientific fact is an ~~~~~~ive and verifiable observation; in contrast with a hypothesis or theory, which is intended to explain or interpret facts.[22] Thus, for example, it is a fact that lighter ~~~~~~s accelerate more quickly toward heavier ~~~~~~s than the reverse, and the theory of gravitation explains why this is so. (See also Evolution as theory and fact.)

Various scholars have offered significant refinements to this basic formulation, some of which are detailed below.
Also, rigorous scientific use of the term "fact" is careful to distinguish: 1) states of affairs in the external world; from 2) assertions of fact that may be considered relevant in scientific analysis. The term is used in both senses in the philosophy of science.[23]

Scholarly inquiry regarding scientific fact

Scholars and clinical researchers in both the social and natural sciences have forwarded numerous questions and theories in clarifying the fundamental nature of scientific fact.[24] Some pertinent issues raised by this inquiry include:

* the process by which "established fact" becomes recognized and accepted as such;[25]
* whether and to what extent "fact" and "theoretic explanation" can be considered truly independent and separable from one another;[26][27]
* to what extent are "facts" influenced by the mere act of observation;[27] and
* to what extent are factual conclusions influenced by history and consensus, rather than a strictly systematic methodology.[28]

Consistent with the theory of confirmation holism, some scholars assert "fact" to be necessarily "theory-laden" to some degree. Thomas Kuhn and others pointed out that knowing what facts to measure, and how to measure them, requires the use of some other theory (e.g., age of fossils is based on radiocarbon dating which is justified by reasoning that radioactive decay follows a Poisson process rather than a Bernoulli process). Similarly, Percy Williams Bridgman is credited with the methodological position known as operationalism, which asserts that all observations are not only influenced, but necessarily defined by the means and assumptions used to measure them.

Fact and the scientific method

Apart from the fundamental inquiry in to the nature of scientific fact, there remain the practical and social considerations of how fact is investigated, established, and substantiated through the proper application of the scientific method.[29]
Scientific facts are generally believed to be independent of the observer: no matter who performs a scientific experiment, all observers will agree on the outcome.[30] In addition to these considerations, there are the social and institutional measures, such as peer review and accreditation, that are intended to promote factual accuracy (among other interests) in scientific study.[31]

Fact in history
Further information: Historiography

A common rhetorical cliché states, "History is written by the winners." This phrase suggests but does not examine the use of facts in the writing of history.

E. H. Carr in his 1961 volume, What is History?, argues that the inherent biases from the gathering of facts makes the factive truth of any historical perspective idealistic and impossible.
Facts are, "like fish in the Ocean," of which we may only happen to catch a few, only an indication of what is below the surface. Even a dragnet cannot tell us for certain what it would be like to live below the Ocean's surface. Even if we do not discard any facts (or fish) presented, we will always miss the majority; the site of our fishing, the methods undertaken, the weather and even luck play a vital role in what we will catch.
Additionally, the composition of history is inevitably made up by the compilation of many different bias of fact finding - all compounded over time. He concludes that for a historian to attempt a more factive method, one must accept that history can only aspire to a conversation of the present with the past - and that one's methods of fact gathering should be openly examined.
As with science, historical truth and facts will therefore change over time and reflect only the present consensus (if that)...

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Re: La eyaculación, un delito?

La EYACULACIÓN PREMATURA es un delito vs EROS!

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BRASIL,País recientemente industrializado,del grupo BRIC,será OLIMPICO!

Mantega dice que las Olimpiadas elevarán el crecimiento de Brasil

Estambul (Turquía), 3 oct (EFE).- El ministro de Hacienda de Brasil, Guido Mantega, afirmó hoy que la preparación para las Olimpiadas en Río de Janeiro en 2016 elevará el crecimiento de su país y fomentará la inversión.

Mantega dijo en Estambul que los gastos públicos necesarios para preparar a la ciudad para los Juegos Olímpicos serán compensados con ingresos nuevos por inversiones privadas, el incremento del turismo y una mayor actividad económica.

Además, "buena parte de la infraestructura para la Olimpiada estará lista tras la Copa del Mundo" de fútbol, que tendrá lugar en Brasil en 2014, añadió Mantega.

Por ello, la concesión de los juegos al país sudamericano "realimentará el proceso de crecimiento de Brasil y lo va a estimular todavía más", dijo Mantega en una rueda de prensa en la localidad turca de Estambul, donde participa en los actos previos a la Asamblea Anual del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y el Banco Mundial.

Mantega se reunió hoy con las autoridades económicas de China, Rusia y la India, los otros miembros del denominado grupo "BRIC", un encuentro al que también asistió como invitado el secretario del Tesoro de Estados Unidos, Timothy Geithner.

En la sesión, China ofreció al gobierno de Brasilia sus conocimientos en la organización de las Olimpiadas, a lo que Mantega respondió que, más que eso, lo que le interesaba era que el país asiático incremente las inversiones en Brasil...