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Re: Wikileaks y las elecciones del 2006
Ahora el final del asombroso descubrimiento de Manolín... algo que "nunca verán publicado en La Jornada"... a menos que lean La Jornada.
Atentos, a ver si logran encontrar alguna pista que indique quién le informó al embajador lo que le comunicó a su gobierno.
¿O a poco creen que ellos no iban a hacer "sus propios análisis"? ¿De verdad lo creen? Nahhh.
Pregúntenle a Manolete si tienen dudas...
Entonces... ¿"En ningún lado dice que el IFE (y sus funcionarios) fueron los que le informaron"?
Bueno, "en el párrafo que citó Manolete no lo dice".
Por eso da risa.
.
Ahora el final del asombroso descubrimiento de Manolín... algo que "nunca verán publicado en La Jornada"... a menos que lean La Jornada.
Atentos, a ver si logran encontrar alguna pista que indique quién le informó al embajador lo que le comunicó a su gobierno.
¿O a poco creen que ellos no iban a hacer "sus propios análisis"? ¿De verdad lo creen? Nahhh.
Pregúntenle a Manolete si tienen dudas...
¶8. (C) Woldenberg's biggest concern over the present
situation is the damage unnecessarily being done to IFE's
reputation by what he considers unfounded allegations of
fraud. He noted that it had taken years for Mexico to
establish a credible electoral system and that no matter how
the TEPJF resolves the present dispute, a core of AMLO true
believers -- he called them a "community of faith" -- will
MEXICO 00003907 003 OF 003
always be convinced that IFE orchestrated or abetted fraud.
What's Next???
--------------
¶9. (C) Woldenberg sees the present situation playing out in one of three possible scenarios. The most likely is that the
TEPJF -- perhaps after ordering a partial recount -- will
confirm Calderon as the winner; he doubts the TEPJF would
order a complete, nationwide recount. The second scenario,
which he considers highly improbable, is that a partial or
total recount would reverse the election results, resulting
in AMLO's election. The third scenario, which he also
considers highly improbable, is that the TEPJF would annul
the entire election. (Note: As we have previously reported
(ref B), TEPJF magistrates told poloffs several weeks before
the election that they would be very reluctant to annul the
entire election. End note.)
¶10. (C) Woldenberg believes that however the TEPJF rules,
its decision would soon end the stand-off. Assuming the
TEPJF confirms Calderon as President, AMLO's base of support
would quickly dwindle, although he might manage to convoke
one or two post-TEPJF demonstrations. He argued that the PRD
was essentially a party of "institutionality" with a great
deal invested in the system, particularly now that it has
emerged as the second force in Congress. He concluded that
it had a great deal to lose if it continued to press its case
extra-institutionally, and that much of the support AMLO
retains in the party hierarchy would melt away as senior PRD
office holders sought to protect their own interests.
Comment: AMLO Playing the Wrong Card?
--------------------------------------
¶11. (C) Frankly, in focusing on fraud where little or none
likely exists, AMLO not only is damaging one of Mexico's most
credible political institutions, but he may be undermining
the small chance he has of reversing the electoral results.
While we have seen no credible evidence of fraud, there is
some evidence that the incidence of human error was greater
in his strongholds, presumably because the level of education
in those regions tends to be lower: among the more than 2.5
million votes excluded from the PREP but included in the
final results (ref A), AMLO appears to have out-polled
Calderon by some 150,000 votes. Although we highly doubt a
recount would find enough errors to overcome Calderon's
current 243,000 lead, we suspect he is more likely to find
significant errors than significant fraud. For over 10
years, AMLO has advanced his political career in part by
knowing how to take political advantage of situations in
which he has been wronged. In the present case, however, his
tendency to consider himself the victim of a conspiracy may
turn out to be his Achilles heel.
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity
GARZA
situation is the damage unnecessarily being done to IFE's
reputation by what he considers unfounded allegations of
fraud. He noted that it had taken years for Mexico to
establish a credible electoral system and that no matter how
the TEPJF resolves the present dispute, a core of AMLO true
believers -- he called them a "community of faith" -- will
MEXICO 00003907 003 OF 003
always be convinced that IFE orchestrated or abetted fraud.
What's Next???
--------------
¶9. (C) Woldenberg sees the present situation playing out in one of three possible scenarios. The most likely is that the
TEPJF -- perhaps after ordering a partial recount -- will
confirm Calderon as the winner; he doubts the TEPJF would
order a complete, nationwide recount. The second scenario,
which he considers highly improbable, is that a partial or
total recount would reverse the election results, resulting
in AMLO's election. The third scenario, which he also
considers highly improbable, is that the TEPJF would annul
the entire election. (Note: As we have previously reported
(ref B), TEPJF magistrates told poloffs several weeks before
the election that they would be very reluctant to annul the
entire election. End note.)
¶10. (C) Woldenberg believes that however the TEPJF rules,
its decision would soon end the stand-off. Assuming the
TEPJF confirms Calderon as President, AMLO's base of support
would quickly dwindle, although he might manage to convoke
one or two post-TEPJF demonstrations. He argued that the PRD
was essentially a party of "institutionality" with a great
deal invested in the system, particularly now that it has
emerged as the second force in Congress. He concluded that
it had a great deal to lose if it continued to press its case
extra-institutionally, and that much of the support AMLO
retains in the party hierarchy would melt away as senior PRD
office holders sought to protect their own interests.
Comment: AMLO Playing the Wrong Card?
--------------------------------------
¶11. (C) Frankly, in focusing on fraud where little or none
likely exists, AMLO not only is damaging one of Mexico's most
credible political institutions, but he may be undermining
the small chance he has of reversing the electoral results.
While we have seen no credible evidence of fraud, there is
some evidence that the incidence of human error was greater
in his strongholds, presumably because the level of education
in those regions tends to be lower: among the more than 2.5
million votes excluded from the PREP but included in the
final results (ref A), AMLO appears to have out-polled
Calderon by some 150,000 votes. Although we highly doubt a
recount would find enough errors to overcome Calderon's
current 243,000 lead, we suspect he is more likely to find
significant errors than significant fraud. For over 10
years, AMLO has advanced his political career in part by
knowing how to take political advantage of situations in
which he has been wronged. In the present case, however, his
tendency to consider himself the victim of a conspiracy may
turn out to be his Achilles heel.
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity
GARZA
Entonces... ¿"En ningún lado dice que el IFE (y sus funcionarios) fueron los que le informaron"?
Bueno, "en el párrafo que citó Manolete no lo dice".
Por eso da risa.
.
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