Los pegostes de Cronos

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Re: Culiacán

CULIACÁN,el'Paris del PACIFICO'...Donde de alguna metafÃsica manera se producen calidas y bellas mujeres,para nada anorgasmicas..

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Re: Jorge

JORGE SHAW MUELLER,asiduo de la calle de DURANGO # 43,aventurero mujeriego de la'clase media alta',un buen dia enfermo y de repente se murio,dejando inconsolables a + de alguna nativa del DF...

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Re: Libertad...

¡LIBERTAD,divino tesoro inexistente,ilusión irreal,¿donde estas...?

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Re: Cartas..de hace como 45 años..pasiones que no se enfrian!!

¿Como fue...?
SI,si fue,pero irrepetible paso...

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FUTURES STUDIES, PROGNOSIS,o ANTICIPACION..Lo que será,no es...

Futures studies emerged as an academic discipline in the mid-1960s, according to first-generation futurists Herman Kahn, Olaf Helmer, Bertrand de Jouvenel, Dennis Gabor, Oliver Markley, Burt Nanus, and Wendell Bell. However, some intellectual foundations of futures studies appeared in the mid-19th century...
-In 1997, Wendell Bell suggested that Comte's discussion of the metapatterns of social change presages futures studies as a scholarly dialogue...

...Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah go further back arguing in Macrohistory and Macrohistorians that the search for grand patterns of social change takes us back to Ssu-Ma Chien (145-90BC) and his theory of the cycles of virtue, though a more intelligible – to modern sociology – would be the work of Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406) and his The Muqaddimah..
- It is here that we gain a coherent theory of social change. One might make a stronger argument that futures studies as a field originated in the early 20th century, intertwined with the birth of systems science in academia, and with the idea of national economic and political planning, most notably in France, the Soviet Union and Eastern bloc countries, after an argument that the future could be known scientifically was made in 1902 by H.G. Wells in 'The Discovery of the Future', a well-received and widely reprinted lecture to the Royal Institution that was republished in book form.

...Differing approaches arose in Western Europe (mostly in France), in Eastern Europe (including the Soviet Union), in the post-colonial developing countries, and in the United States of America...
- In the 1950s European people and nations continued to reconstruct their war-torn continent. In the process, scholars, philosophers, writers, and artists searched for what could constitute a more positive future for humanity, and for their own countries in particular...
- The Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc countries participated in the European rebuilding, but did so in the context of an established national economic planning process, which also required a long-term, systemic statement of social goals...
- The newly-independent developing countries of Africa and Asia faced the challenge of constructing industrial infrastructure from a minimal base, as well as constructing national identities with concomitant long-term social goals...
- By contrast, in the United States of America, futures studies as a discipline emerged from the successful application of the tools and perspectives of systems analysis, especially with regard to quartermastering the war-effort.

...There is a perceived schism – though given the globalization of knowledge, generally no longer relevant – between futures studies in America and futures studies in Europe: U.S. practitioners often seem to focus on applied projects, quantitative tools and systems analysis, whereas Europeans seem to investigate the long-range future of humanity and the Earth, what might constitute that future, what symbols and semantics might express it, and who might articulate these...

...With regard to futures studies within the former centrally-planned economies, or within the newly-developing countries, differences with U.S. futures practice exist primarily because futures researchers in the United States have no opportunity to engage in national planning, nor do their fellow-citizens call upon them to construct national symbols. This is changing in the early 21st century, as early signs of overshoot and collapse are apparent, and modern applications of futures studies techniques found in the UNESCO Sustainability Education materials.

...By the 1960s, academics, philosophers, writers and artists across the globe had begun to explore enough future scenarios so as to fashion a common dialogue. Inventors such as Buckminster Fuller also began highlighting the effect technology might have on global trends as time progressed...
- This discussion on the intersection of population growth, resource availability and use, economic growth, quality of life, and environmental sustainability – referred to as the "global problematique" – came to wide public attention with the publication of 'Limits to Growth', a study sponsored by the Club of Rome...
- This international dialogue became institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967, with the noted sociologist, Johan Galtung, serving as its first president...
- In the United States, the publisher Edward Cornish, concerned with these issues, started the World Future Society, an organization focused more on interested laypeople.

...The field currently faces the great challenge of creating a coherent conceptual framework, codified into a well-documented curriculum (or curricula) featuring widely-accepted and consistent concepts and theoretical paradigms linked to quantitative and qualitative methods, exemplars of those research methods, and guidelines for their ethical and appropriate application within society...
- As an indication that previously disparate intellectual dialogues have in fact started converging into a recognizable discipline, at least six solidly-researched and well-accepted first attempts to synthesize a coherent framework for the field have appeared:
- Eleonora Masini's 'Why Futures Studies',
-James Dator's Advancing 'Futures Studies',
- Ziauddin Sardar's' Rescuing all of our Futures',
- Sohail Inayatullah's 'Questioning the future',
- Richard A. Slaughter's' The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies', a collection of essays by senior practitioners,
- and Wendell Bell's two-volume work, 'The Foundations of Futures Studies'.

Evolving the field – Programs in Futures Studies (by region)
-North America

-1975 saw the founding of the first graduate program in futures studies in the United States, the M.S. Program in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston–Clear Lake; there followed a year later the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoa... The Houston program later moved to the main campus of the University of Houston under the guidance of Dr. Peter C. Bishop, and currently offers a Master of Science in Foresight and several kinds of certification. The Hawaii program provides particular interest in the light of the schism in perspective between European and U.S. futurists; it bridges that schism by locating futures studies within a pedagogical space defined by neo-Marxism, critical political economic theory, and literary criticism. In the years following the foundation of these two programs, single courses in Futures Studies at all levels of education have proliferated, but complete programs occur only rarely...
- As a transdisciplinary field, futures studies attracts generalists. This transdisciplinary nature can also cause problems, owing to it sometimes falling between the cracks of disciplinary boundaries; it also has caused some difficulty in achieving recognition within the traditional curricula of the sciences and the humanities...
- In contrast to "Futures Studies" at the undergraduate level, some graduate programs in strategic leadership or management offer masters or doctorate programs in "strategic foresight" for mid-career professionals, some even online.
-Nevertheless, comparatively few new PhDs graduate in Futures Studies each year.

Education

...Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States of America in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries.
- Futures education can encourage the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to:

conceptualise more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.
develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable and preferred futures.
understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.
conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.

Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work of Richard A. Slaughter (2004), David Hicks, Ivana Milojević and Jennifer Gidley to name a few.

...While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example in planning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies)...
- Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have incorporated futures studies. A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level...

...The largest Futures Studies program in the world is at Tamkang University, Taiwan... Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three to five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies...

...As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs.

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Re: Prognosis/Diagnosis sobre Mx. del 2009 hasta unos 20 años despues

2012-2020...+ y a veces mejor PRIgobierno,pero tambien a veces peor o mucho peor,pues no hay que olvidarse que:el PRIgobierno frecuentemente es y actua,en muchos lugares y ocasiones no solo como 'dictablanda',sino tambien como DELINCUENCIA ORGANISADA,y muchos antiguos CACICAZGOS son + bien eso...

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Re: Unos tacos del sureste

Los mejores TACOS en y de donde sea se hacen con tortillas de harina,no con tortillas de maÃz..

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NASA Institute for Advanced Conceptes:NIAC..The far,far ahed..

NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts...

...NIAC is a NASA program for development of advanced concepts. The program operated under the name NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts from 1998 until 2007 (managed by the Universities Space Research Association on behalf of NASA), and continued under the name NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts from 2011 to present (managed by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist)...
- The NIAC program funds work on revolutionary aeronautics and space concepts that could dramatically impact how NASA developed and conducted its missions.

NIAC History

...The NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC) was a NASA-funded program that was operated by the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) for NASA from 1998 until its closure on 31 August 2007. NIAC was to serve as "an independent open forum, a high-level point of entry to NASA for an external community of innovators, and an external capability for analysis and definition of advanced aeronautics and space concepts to complement the advanced concept activities conducted within NASA."..
- NIAC sought proposals for revolutionary aeronautics and space concepts that could dramatically impact how NASA developed and conducted its missions. It provided a highly visible, recognizable, and high-level entry point for outside thinkers and researchers. NIAC encouraged proposers to think decades into the future in pursuit of concepts that would "leapfrog" the evolution of contemporary aerospace systems...
- While NIAC sought advanced concept proposals that stretch the imagination, these concepts were expected to be based on sound scientific principles and attainable within a 10 to 40-year time frame. From February 1998 to 2007, NIAC received a total of 1,309 proposals and awarded 126 Phase I grants and 42 Phase II contracts for a total value of $27.3 million...

...NASA announced on March 1, 2011 that the NIAC concept would be re-established at NASA with similar goals, maintaining the acronym NIAC.

NIAC 1998–2007

...Studies funded by the original NIAC 1998–2007 include:

Bio-Nano-Machines for Space Applications - Constantinos Mavroidis
System Feasibility Demonstrations of Caves and Subsurface Constructs for Mars Habitation and Scientific Exploration (Caves of Mars Project) - Penelope J. Boston
Lunar space elevator - Jerome Pearson final report.pdf
Magnetic sail - Robert Zubrin
Mini-magnetospheric plasma propulsion - Robert M. Winglee
Momentum exchange tether - Thomas J. Bogar final report.pdf
New Worlds Mission - Webster Cash
Space elevator - Bradley C. Edwards
Mars Entomopter - Anthony Colozza / Robert Michelson

Closing of the Original NIAC

...On July 2, 2007, NIAC announced that "NASA, faced with the constraints of achieving the Vision for Space Exploration, has made the difficult decision to terminate NIAC, which has been funded by NASA since inception. Effective August 31, 2007, the original NIAC organization ceased operations...

Revised NIAC

Following the termination of the original NIAC program, Congress requested a review of the NIAC program by the United States National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academy of Sciences...
- The review was done in 2009, and concluded that in order to achieve its mission, NASA needs "a mechanism to investigate visionary, far-reaching advanced concepts," and recommended that NIAC, or a NIAC-like program, should be reestablished. Consistent with this recommendation, it was announced on March 1, 2011 that the NIAC was to be revived with similar goals leading to the establishment in 2011 of a project within the NASA Office of Chief Technologist, the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts, maintaining the acronym NIAC. It is now part of the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)

...According to Michael Gazarik, director of NASA's Space Technology Program, "Through the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts program, NASA is taking the long-term view of technological investment and the advancement that is essential for accomplishing our missions. We are inventing the ways in which next-generation aircraft and spacecraft will change the world and inspiring Americans to take bold steps."

2011 NIAC Project Selections

...The revived NIAC, with the slightly-changed name "NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts," funded thirty phase-I studies in 2011 to investigate advanced concepts...

2012 NIAC Project Selections

...In August 2012, NIAC announced selection of 18 new phase-I proposals, along with Phase-II grants for continuation of 10 projects selected in earlier solicitations. These include many projects ranging from Landsailing rovers on Venus[ to schemes to explore under the ice of Europa...

2013 NIAC Project Solicitation

...In spring of 2013, NIAC conducted a third solicitation for new phase-I proposals, with projects to start in the autumn of 2013...

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Re: Los profesionales de los temas de odio:Herman Kahn/Dr Strangelove

...Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was one of the preeminent futurists of the latter third of the twentieth century. He was a founder of the Hudson Institute think tank and originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at RAND Corporation, USA...
- He was known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability; a notoriety that made him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black comedy film satire, Dr. Strangelove .

His theories contributed to the development of the nuclear strategy of the United States.

Background

...Kahn was born in Bayonne, New Jersey, the son of Yetta (née Koslowsky) and Abraham Kahn, a tailor. His parents were Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe. He was raised in the Bronx, then in Los Angeles following his parents' divorce. Raised Jewish, he later became an atheist. He attended the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), majoring in physics. During WWII he was stationed by the Army as a telephone linesman in Burma. After World War II, he finished his B.S. at UCLA and embarked on a Ph.D. at Caltech. He dropped out for financial reasons, but did receive an M.Sc. Following briefly working in real estate, he was recruited to RAND by his friend Samuel Cohen, the inventor of the neutron bomb. He became involved with the development of the hydrogen bomb, commuting to the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in Northern California and working closely with Edward Teller, John von Neumann, Hans Bethe, and mathematician Albert Wohlstetter...

Cold War theories

...Kahn's major contributions were the several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate "the unthinkable", namely, nuclear warfare, by using applications of game theory. (Most notably, Kahn is often cited as the father of scenario planning.) During the mid-1950s, the Dwight D. Eisenhower administration's prevailing nuclear strategy had been one of "massive retaliation", enunciated by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles. According to this theory, dubbed the "New Look", since the Soviet Army was considerably larger than that of the United States, it therefore presented a potential security threat in too many locations for the Americans to counter effectively all at once. Consequently, the United States had no choice but to proclaim that its response to any Soviet aggression, anywhere, would be a nuclear attack.

...Kahn considered this theory untenable because it was crude and potentially destabilizing. Arguably, the "New Look" invited nuclear attack by providing the Soviets with an incentive to precede any conventional, localized military action worldwide (e.g., in Korea, Africa, etc.) with a nuclear attack on U.S. bomber bases, thereby eliminating the Americans' nuclear threat immediately and forcing the U.S. into the land war it sought to avoid.

...In 1960, as Cold War tensions were near their peak following the Sputnik crisis and amidst talk of a widening "missile gap" between the U.S. and the Soviets, Kahn published 'On Thermonuclear Wa'r, the title of which clearly alluded to the classic 19th-century treatise on military strategy, 'On War', by German military strategist Carl von Clausewitz.

...Kahn rested his theory upon two premises, one obvious, one highly controversial.
- First, nuclear war was obviously feasible, since the United States and the Soviet Union currently had massive nuclear arsenals aimed at each other. -Second, like any other war, it was winnable.

...Whether hundreds of millions died or "merely" a few major cities were destroyed, Kahn argued, life would in fact go on, as it had for instance after the "Black Death" of the 14th century in Europe, or in Japan after a limited nuclear attack in 1945, contrary to the conventional, prevailing doomsday scenarios. Various outcomes might be far more horrible than anything hitherto witnessed or imagined, but nonetheless, some of them in turn could be far worse than others. No matter how calamitous the devastation, the survivors ultimately would not "envy the dead." To believe otherwise would mean that deterrence was unnecessary in the first place. If Americans were unwilling to accept the consequences, no matter how horrifying, of a nuclear exchange, then they certainly had no business proclaiming their willingness to attack...
- Without an unfettered, unambivalent willingness to push the button, the entire array of preparations and military deployments was merely an elaborate bluff.

...The basis of his work were systems theory and game theory as applied to military strategy and economics. Kahn argued that for deterrence to succeed, the Soviets had to be convinced that the United States had a second strike capability, in order to leave no doubt in the minds of the Politburo that even a perfectly-coordinated, massive attack would guarantee a measure of retaliation that would leave them devastated as well:

....At the minimum, an adequate deterrent for the United States must provide an objective basis for a Soviet calculation that would persuade them that, no matter how skillful or ingenious they were, an attack on the United States would lead to a very high risk if not certainty of large-scale destruction to Soviet civil society and military forces...

...This reasoning superficially resembles the much older doctrine of MAD, or "Mutual Assured Destruction", but Kahn was actually a vocal critic of that doctrine, which was due to John von Neumann. Strong conventional forces were also a key element in Kahn's strategic thinking, for he argued that the tension generated by relatively minor flashpoints worldwide could be thereby effectively siphoned off without undue resort to the nuclear option...


Hudson Institute

...In 1961 Kahn, Max Singer and Oscar Ruebhausen, founded the Hudson Institute, a policy research organization then located in Croton-on-Hudson, New York which was also where Kahn was living at the time. Luminaries such as sociologist Daniel Bell, political philosopher Raymond Aron and novelist Ralph Ellison, author of the 1952 classic 'Invisible Man', were recruited by the institute. Stung by the vociferousness of his critics, Kahn softened his tone somewhat, responding to their points in 'Thinking About the Unthinkable' (1962) and a further work on military strategy,' On Escalation' (1965). Between 1966 and 1968, during the peak of the Vietnam War, Kahn served as a consultant to the Department of Defense and opposed the growing pressure to negotiate directly with North Vietnam, arguing that the only military solution was sharp escalation. Failing that, he said, the U.S. government had to have an exit strategy, and Kahn claimed credit for introducing the term "Vietnamization"... Herman Kahn and the Hudson Institute advised against starting a counterinsurgency war in Vietnam, but once it was going, they gave advice on how to wage it. He said in an interview that he and the Hudson Institute preferred not to give advice to e.g. the Secretary of Defense, because disagreement at such a high level was regarded as treason, whereas disagreement with, say, the deputy undersecretary was regarded as only technical. The US brought in British advisers having experience from their successful counterinsurgency war in Malaya and constructed a plan with their help. But Kahn and the Institute judged that Vietnam was different from Malaya because the British had an effective rural constabulary in Malaya. They did a study of the major counterinsurgency wars in recent history and found a 100% correlation between successful wars and effective police forces. Kahn said "the purpose of an army is to protect your police force. We had an army in Vietnam without a purpose."

The Year 2000

...In 1967 Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener published 'The Year 2000, A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years' with contributions from other staff members of the Hudson Institute and an introduction by Daniel Bell. Table XVIII contains a list called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century." The first ten predictions were:

1. Multiple applications of lasers.
2. Extreme high-strength structural materials.
3. New or improved superperformance fabrics.
4. New or improved materials for equipment and appliances.
5. New airborne vehicles (ground-effect vehicles, giant or supersonic jets, VTOL, STOL.)
6. Extensive commercial applications of shaped-charge explosives.
7. More reliable and longer-range weather forecasting.
8. Extensive and/or intensive expansion of tropical agriculture and forestry.
9. New sources of power for fixed installations.
10. New sources of power for ground transportation.

The remaining ninety predictions included:

26. Widespread use of nuclear reactors for power.
38. New techniques for cheap and reliable birth control.
41. Improved capability to change sex of children and/or adults.
57. Automated universal (real time) credit, audit and banking systems.
67. Commercial extraction of oil from shale.
74. Pervasive business use of computers.
81. Personal pagers (perhaps even pocket phones.)
84. Home computers to "run" households and communicate with the outside

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Physics of the future/Michio Kaku/'by the year 2100..

...Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 is a 2011 book by theoretical physicist Michio Kaku, author of Hyperspace and Physics of the Impossible. It speculates on the possibilities of future technological development over the next 100 years...
- Interviewing notable scientists of their field of research Kaku lays out his vision of coming developments in medicine, computing, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and energy production, stating that "this book most closely resembles my book Visions." Kaku writes how he hopes his predictions for 2100 will be as successful as science fiction writer Jules Verne's 1863 novel Paris in the Twentieth Century. Kaku contrasts Verne's foresight against U.S. Postmaster General John Wanamaker, who in 1893 predicted that mail would still be delivered by stagecoach and horseback in 100 years' time, and IBM chairman Thomas J. Watson, who in 1943 is alleged to have said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Kaku points to this long history of failed predictions against progress to underscore his notion "that it is very dangerous to bet against the future"...
- The book was on the New York Times Bestseller List for 5 weeks.

Contents

....Each chapter is sorted into three sections: Near future (2000-2030), Midcentury (2030-2070), and Far future (2070-2100). Kaku notes that the time periods are only rough approximations, but show the general time frame for the various trends in the book..

-Future of the Computer: Mind over Matter

...Kaku begins with Moore's law, and compares a chip that sings "Happy Birthday" with the Allied forces in 1945, stating that the chip contains much more power, and that "Hitler, Churchill, or Roosevelt might have killed to get that chip." He predicts that computer power will increase to the point where computers, like electricity, paper, and water, "disappear into the fabric of our lives, and computer chips will be planted in the walls of buildings."

...He also predicts that glasses and contact lenses will be connected to the internet, using similar technology to virtual retinal displays. Cars will become driverless due to the power of the GPS system. This prediction is supported by the results of the Urban Challenge. The Pentagon hopes to make 1⁄3 of the United States ground forces automated by 2015. Technology similar to BrainGate will eventually allow humans to control computers with tiny brain sensors, and "like a magician, move objects around with the power of our minds."

-Future of AI: Rise of the Machines

...Kaku discusses robotic body parts, modular robots, unemployment caused by robots, surrogates and avatars (like their respective movies), and reverse engineering the brain. Kaku goes over the three laws of robotics and their contradictions. He endorses a "chip in robot brains to automatically shut them off if they have murderous thoughts", and believes that the most likely scenario is "friendly AI", in which robots are free to wreak havoc and destruction, but are designed to desire benevolence...

-Future of Medicine: Perfection and Beyond

...Kaku believes that in the future, reprogramming one's genes can be done by using a specially programmed virus, which can activate genes that slow the aging process. Nanotech sensors in a room will check for various diseases and cancer, nanobots will be able to inject drugs into individual cells when diseases are found, and advancements in extracting stem cells will be manifest in the art of growing new organs...
- The idea of resurrecting an extinct species might now be biologically possible.

Nanotechnology: Everything from Nothing?

...Kaku discusses programmable matter, quantum computers, carbon nanotubes, and the possibility of replicators. He also expects a variety of nanodevices that search and destroy cancer cells cleanly, leaving normal cells intact.

Future of Energy: Energy from the Stars

...Kaku discusses the draining of oil on the planet by pointing to the Hubbert curve, and the rising problem of immigrants who wish to live the American dream of wasteful energy consumption. He predicts that hydrogen and solar energy will be the future, noting how Henry Ford and Thomas Edison bet on whether oil or electricity would dominate, and describing fusion with lasers or magnetic fields, and dismisses cold fusion as "a dead end". Kaku observes that nations are reluctant to deal with global warming because the extravagance of oil, being the cheapest source of energy, encourages economic growth. Kaku believes that in the far future, room-temperature superconductors will usher the era of magnet-powered floating cars and trains...

Future of Space Travel: To the Stars

...Unlike conventional chemical rockets which use Newton's third law of motion, solar sails take advantage of radiation pressure from stars. Kaku believes that after sending a gigantic solar sail into orbit, one could install lasers on the moon, which would hit the sail and give it extra momentum.

...Another alternative is to send thousands of nanoships, of which only a few would reach their destination. "Once arriving on a nearby moon, they could create a factory to make unlimited copies of themselves," says Kaku. Nanoships would require very little fuel to accelerate. They could visit the stellar neighborhood by floating on the magnetic fields of other planets...

Future of Wealth: Winners and Losers

...Kaku discusses how Moore's law robotics will affect the future capitalism, which nations will survive and grow, how the United States is "brain-draining" off of immigrants to fuel their economy.

Future of Humanity: Planetary Civilization

...Kaku ranks the civilization of the future, with classifications based on energy consumption, entropy, and information processing.

Reception

...The Wall Street Journal considers it a "largely optimistic view of the future". In April 2011, The Telegraph stated "[Physics of the Future] is partisan about technology in a way that smacks of Gerard K. O'Neill’s deliriously technocratic vision of space exploration, The High Frontier." Kirkus Reviews stated "The author’s scientific expertise will engage readers too sophisticated for predictions based on psychic powers or astrology." Reviewers at Library Journal have stated, "This work is highly recommended for fans of Kaku’s previous books and for readers interested in science and robotics." Barnes and Noble stated, "Physics of the Future qualifies as one of the most exciting science books of the new millennium." The Economist is skeptical about prediction in general pointing out that unforeseen "unknown unknowns" led to many disruptive technologies over the century just past...

...Not all reviewers had a positive response to the book. Writing in journal Physics Today, physicist Neil Gershenfeld said that the book has “an appealing premise” but describes “a kind of future by committee” populated by “science-fiction staples”. Gershenfeld said, “Such a forecast could have been accomplished with less effort by collating covers from popular science magazines.” Gershenfeld criticizes Kaku for “some surprising physics errors”, such as ignoring air friction on maglev vehicles. Kaku is praised for raising “profound questions”, such as the effect of affluence in the future, or the decoupling of sensory experience from reality. However, Gershenfeld laments that these questions are asked in the margins and not given a deep treatment. “It would have been more relevant to learn the author’s perspective on these questions than to find out where and to whom he’s presented lectures,” Gershenfeld said...

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Physics of the future/Michio Kaku/'by the year 2100..

...Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 is a 2011 book by theoretical physicist Michio Kaku, author of Hyperspace and Physics of the Impossible. It speculates on the possibilities of future technological development over the next 100 years...
- Interviewing notable scientists of their field of research Kaku lays out his vision of coming developments in medicine, computing, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and energy production, stating that "this book most closely resembles my book Visions." Kaku writes how he hopes his predictions for 2100 will be as successful as science fiction writer Jules Verne's 1863 novel Paris in the Twentieth Century. Kaku contrasts Verne's foresight against U.S. Postmaster General John Wanamaker, who in 1893 predicted that mail would still be delivered by stagecoach and horseback in 100 years' time, and IBM chairman Thomas J. Watson, who in 1943 is alleged to have said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Kaku points to this long history of failed predictions against progress to underscore his notion "that it is very dangerous to bet against the future"...
- The book was on the New York Times Bestseller List for 5 weeks.

Contents

....Each chapter is sorted into three sections: Near future (2000-2030), Midcentury (2030-2070), and Far future (2070-2100). Kaku notes that the time periods are only rough approximations, but show the general time frame for the various trends in the book..

-Future of the Computer: Mind over Matter

...Kaku begins with Moore's law, and compares a chip that sings "Happy Birthday" with the Allied forces in 1945, stating that the chip contains much more power, and that "Hitler, Churchill, or Roosevelt might have killed to get that chip." He predicts that computer power will increase to the point where computers, like electricity, paper, and water, "disappear into the fabric of our lives, and computer chips will be planted in the walls of buildings."

...He also predicts that glasses and contact lenses will be connected to the internet, using similar technology to virtual retinal displays. Cars will become driverless due to the power of the GPS system. This prediction is supported by the results of the Urban Challenge. The Pentagon hopes to make 1⁄3 of the United States ground forces automated by 2015. Technology similar to BrainGate will eventually allow humans to control computers with tiny brain sensors, and "like a magician, move objects around with the power of our minds."

-Future of AI: Rise of the Machines

...Kaku discusses robotic body parts, modular robots, unemployment caused by robots, surrogates and avatars (like their respective movies), and reverse engineering the brain. Kaku goes over the three laws of robotics and their contradictions. He endorses a "chip in robot brains to automatically shut them off if they have murderous thoughts", and believes that the most likely scenario is "friendly AI", in which robots are free to wreak havoc and destruction, but are designed to desire benevolence...

-Future of Medicine: Perfection and Beyond

...Kaku believes that in the future, reprogramming one's genes can be done by using a specially programmed virus, which can activate genes that slow the aging process. Nanotech sensors in a room will check for various diseases and cancer, nanobots will be able to inject drugs into individual cells when diseases are found, and advancements in extracting stem cells will be manifest in the art of growing new organs...
- The idea of resurrecting an extinct species might now be biologically possible.

Nanotechnology: Everything from Nothing?

...Kaku discusses programmable matter, quantum computers, carbon nanotubes, and the possibility of replicators. He also expects a variety of nanodevices that search and destroy cancer cells cleanly, leaving normal cells intact.

Future of Energy: Energy from the Stars

...Kaku discusses the draining of oil on the planet by pointing to the Hubbert curve, and the rising problem of immigrants who wish to live the American dream of wasteful energy consumption. He predicts that hydrogen and solar energy will be the future, noting how Henry Ford and Thomas Edison bet on whether oil or electricity would dominate, and describing fusion with lasers or magnetic fields, and dismisses cold fusion as "a dead end". Kaku observes that nations are reluctant to deal with global warming because the extravagance of oil, being the cheapest source of energy, encourages economic growth. Kaku believes that in the far future, room-temperature superconductors will usher the era of magnet-powered floating cars and trains...

Future of Space Travel: To the Stars

...Unlike conventional chemical rockets which use Newton's third law of motion, solar sails take advantage of radiation pressure from stars. Kaku believes that after sending a gigantic solar sail into orbit, one could install lasers on the moon, which would hit the sail and give it extra momentum.

...Another alternative is to send thousands of nanoships, of which only a few would reach their destination. "Once arriving on a nearby moon, they could create a factory to make unlimited copies of themselves," says Kaku. Nanoships would require very little fuel to accelerate. They could visit the stellar neighborhood by floating on the magnetic fields of other planets...

Future of Wealth: Winners and Losers

...Kaku discusses how Moore's law robotics will affect the future capitalism, which nations will survive and grow, how the United States is "brain-draining" off of immigrants to fuel their economy.

Future of Humanity: Planetary Civilization

...Kaku ranks the civilization of the future, with classifications based on energy consumption, entropy, and information processing.

Reception

...The Wall Street Journal considers it a "largely optimistic view of the future". In April 2011, The Telegraph stated "[Physics of the Future] is partisan about technology in a way that smacks of Gerard K. O'Neill’s deliriously technocratic vision of space exploration, The High Frontier." Kirkus Reviews stated "The author’s scientific expertise will engage readers too sophisticated for predictions based on psychic powers or astrology." Reviewers at Library Journal have stated, "This work is highly recommended for fans of Kaku’s previous books and for readers interested in science and robotics." Barnes and Noble stated, "Physics of the Future qualifies as one of the most exciting science books of the new millennium." The Economist is skeptical about prediction in general pointing out that unforeseen "unknown unknowns" led to many disruptive technologies over the century just past...

...Not all reviewers had a positive response to the book. Writing in journal Physics Today, physicist Neil Gershenfeld said that the book has “an appealing premise” but describes “a kind of future by committee” populated by “science-fiction staples”. Gershenfeld said, “Such a forecast could have been accomplished with less effort by collating covers from popular science magazines.” Gershenfeld criticizes Kaku for “some surprising physics errors”, such as ignoring air friction on maglev vehicles. Kaku is praised for raising “profound questions”, such as the effect of affluence in the future, or the decoupling of sensory experience from reality. However, Gershenfeld laments that these questions are asked in the margins and not given a deep treatment. “It would have been more relevant to learn the author’s perspective on these questions than to find out where and to whom he’s presented lectures,” Gershenfeld said...

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Re:La mayoria de los NEGOCIOS en Mx.,son Intrascedencias

Un negocio consiste en un sistema, método o forma de obtener dinero, a cambio de ofrecer productos, bienes o servicios a otras personas.

...Un ejemplo serÃa la creación de una página web en donde brindemos asesorÃa gratis sobre negocios, y ganemos dinero por la publicidad que coloquemos en ella.

...Pero también, un negocio consiste en una entidad creada o constituida con la finalidad de obtener dinero a cambio de realizar actividades de producción (por ejemplo, una fábrica de muebles), comercialización (por ejemplo, una tienda de repuestos de autos o una distribuidora) o prestación de servicios (por ejemplo, un restaurante o un taller de mecánica), que beneficien a otras personas.

...Negocio es una actividad comercial o social que se ha pensado y que se desea desarrollar. Es una herramienta que nos permite organizar y planificar las actividades que debemos realizar para lograr las metas de nuestra empresa cooperativa.

...Existen varias herramientas para desarrollar modelos de negocio, entendidos como la estrategia o planeación de los factores o elementos que compone el negocio.

...Un negocio en Internet consiste en realizar las actividades de producción y ventas a través de Internet. Este tipo de negocio tiene como tienda una página web la cual utilizan para mostrar sus productos o servicios; frecuentemente estas páginas permiten hacer transacciones con tarjetas de crédito.

EtimologÃa de la palabra negocio

...El término negocio deriva de las palabras latinas nec y otium, es decir, lo que no es ocio. Para los romanos otium era lo que se hacÃa en el tiempo libre, sin ninguna recompensa; entonces negocio para ellos era lo que se hacÃa por dinero...
- Es una ocupación lucrativa que cuando tiene un cierto volumen, estabilidad y organización se denomina empresa. También es la consecuencia de la correcta administración de los recursos con un resultado económicamente positivo para las partes; es importante señalar que no solamente puede ser dinero sino relaciones de poder...

...Por la extensión, la palabra se hizo sinónima "de una empresa individual comercial" (tan recientemente como el siglo XVIII) y tomaba también a veces el sentido "del nexo de actividades comerciales" o "de los representantes de la actividad comercial".

...EspecÃficamente, negocio puede referirse a entidades individuales de la economÃa. En algunas jurisdicciones legales, tales entidades son reguladas por la ley para conducir las operaciones a favor de empresarios...
- Un negocio industrial es referido comúnmente como una industria...

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Re: Las rejas de Chapultepec son de fierro y hasta verdes nomás para usted....

Para mi desde hace + de 1/2 siglo las REJAS d'CHAPULTEPEC son muy resistentes por ser de hierro fundido y hasta bonitas por ser verdes para hacer'juego'con robustos arboles y largos pastos d'esta gran,gran zona de paseo y esparcimiento para todo el DF y areas circunvecinas del Edomex...

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Re: ¿no que no presumido/a,no que no?

La imensa población de la 3° o 4° edad es bien parasita y buena para nada,fuera de solo saber estirar una de sus feas manos para ahi'algo recibir'...

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+ del y sobre el futuro de Michio Kaku..los avances tecnológicos hacia el 2040..

Michio Kaku: "Un litro de agua de mar equivaldrá a cientos de litros de gasolina"...

...El fÃsico y divulgador demuestra como los avances tecnológicos ya conseguidos harán realidad en pocas décadas muchas de las previsiones de la ciencia ficción

-Llevar los chips integrados en nuestras ropas y nuestro cuerpo. Caminar por la calle y ver impresa sobre nuestra mirada el nombre y la biografÃa de todas las personas con las que nos cruzamos. Teletransportar moléculas de agua al espacio exterior.

...Son algunas de las previsiones de un futuro bastante cercano que hace el prestigioso fÃsico y divulgador Michio Kaku (California, 1947). Y no habla por hablar: todas sus afirmaciones sobre el increÃble mundo de ciencia ficción en el que viviremos dentro de pocos años están basadas en avances tecnológicos que ya existen actualmente.

...El autor del libro de divulgación “La fÃsica de lo imposible. ¿Podremos ser invisibles, viajar en el tiempo y teletransportarnos?”, que ha visitado Barcelona con motivo del Bdigital Global Congress, asegura que en unos 20 años se producirá “el cruce” entre el coste del petróleo y la energÃa solar y las leyes de la oferta y la demanda revolucionarán el mercado energético. En el 2050, el agua de mar que alimenta los procesos de fusión nuclear será cientos de veces más poderosa de lo que es actualmente la gasolina.

-¿Vivimos ya en un mundo de ciencia ficción?
-Lo haremos. La potencia de los ordenadores se dobla cada 18 meses. Hoy tu teléfono ya es más potente que el ordenador de la NASA que llevó a dos hombres a la luna. ¡Ese es el poder que hay en tu teléfono móvil! Esta evolución continuará durante 10 o 15 años más, asà que en el año 2020 algunos chips costarán un penique. Serán más baratos que el papel y estarán en todos lados: dentro de tu cuerpo, en tu ropa… en todas partes.

-¿Para qué querremos tantos chips?
-Si hoy sufres un accidente de coche, te puedes morir. Pero mañana tus ropas serán inteligentes y medirán tu ritmo cardÃaco, mandarán una señal con tu localización a la ambulancia y enviarán también tu historial médico mientras estés inconsciente. Asà que en el futuro nunca morirás solo.

-¿Dónde más llevaremos chips?
-Internet estará integrado en tus lentillas: parpadearás y estarás conectado. ¿Qué quieres ver una pelÃcula? Parpadeas y ya la ves.

-¿Cuándo sucederá esto?
-Las gafas con Internet ya existen y las lentillas tardarán unos 5 o 10 años. Estas gafas también reconocerán la cara de la mayorÃa de las personas, asà que dirán quien eres y cuál es tu biografÃa.

-La realidad aumentada ya permite hacer algo muy parecido a través del móvil.
-Exactamente. Y también incluirán subtÃtulos. Si hablas en chino o japonés, los subtÃtulos aparecerán mientras hablas. Los ordenadores ya pueden transcribir el habla a la misma velocidad en que se emite. Estoy hablando de ahora. La realidad aumentada permitirá también que los turistas que ahora van a Roma y sólo ven las ruinas del Imperio Romano, puedan ver toda su antigua gloria resucitada en sus lentillas.

-¿Seremos ciborgs?
-¡No! [RÃe]. Seguiremos siendo gente normal. Las máquinas pueden hacer cada vez más cosas pero, no reemplazaremos nuestro cuerpo con máquinas. Reemplazaremos el cuerpo con órganos cultivados en laboratorios. Hoy ya podrÃa coger unas cuantas células de tu piel y hacer crecer cientos de acres de ella. También se puede hacer con huesos, nariz, oreja, cartÃlagos, válvulas del corazón, venas, la vejiga… En unos pocos años, quizás en cinco, crearemos los primeros hÃgados. Y después vendrá el páncreas, asà que podremos curar la diabetes...

-¿Entonces viviremos más años?
-Probablemente sÃ.

-¿Cuántos?
-Ahora estamos descubriendo los genes que controlan el proceso de envejecimiento. TodavÃa no podemos detener el proceso, pero ya hemos localizados los genes que lo generan. En el futuro todos tendremos un CDrom con nuestros genes en su interior. Al principio secuenciar a un ser humano costaba 3.000 millones de dólares. Ahora cuesta 50.000 dólares, en algunos años más serán 1.000 y más adelante sólo 100.

-¿El médico podrá teletransportarse hasta mi casa?
-[RÃe] Bueno, ahora podemos teletransportar átomos de cesio y de rubidio. Esto es algo que hoy ya se puede hacer. Quizás en 10 años podamos hacerlo incluso con una molécula de agua o de dióxido de carbono. Más adelante quizás podamos ir todavÃa más allá y lograrlo con una secuencia de ADN. Pero un cuerpo entero es demasiado.

-¿No sucederá?
- No sucederá mientras vivamos. Pero sà que podemos teletransportar átomos.

-¿Tan lejos como queramos?
-El récord son 600 metros, asà que podemos teletransportarlo de un lado a otro de un rÃo. En teorÃa podrÃamos incluso teletransportarlos a la estación espacial internacional, al mundo exterior. Queremos que una misión de la Nasa teletransporte a la estación internacional.

-¿Cómo cambiarán todos estos avances al ser humano y a la sociedad?
-Todo va a cambiar cuando se produzca esta revolución. Viviremos más años y tendremos información al instante. Los médicos serán virtuales y cuando tengas que hacerte unas pruebas, en lugar de ir al hospital irás al lavabo de tu casa, que diez años antes de que se forme un tumor ya detectará y analizará las proteÃnas emitidas por un centenar de células. Tu lavabo te dirá, diez años antes, si tendrás cáncer y podrÃa convertirse en su remedio.

-Las obras de ciencia ficción siempre hacen interpretaciones negativas de este tipo de avances. ¿Existe ese riesgo?
-Creo que la mayorÃa de estas tecnologÃas serán buenas y harán la vida mejor, más barata y más fácil. De todos modos, a la gente le da un poco de miedo cuando oye hablar por primera vez de estas cosas. Miedo a quedarse atrás. Luego pasan a un segundo nivel, en el que piensan “mmmm… esto es útil: poder usar estas lentillas podrÃa conducir a cualquier lugar, saber con quien estoy hablando o traducir conversaciones”. En el tercer nivel dicen “si todo el mundo lo hace, hasta los niños”.

-También hay el temor a un control excesivo.
-Normalmente pensamos que el problema es el Gran Hermano, el gobierno que lo sabe todo. Pero ahora sabemos que el problema no es el Gran Hermano sino el Pequeño Hermano: los criminales, los vecinos, la gente que quiere tus números de tarjeta de crédito, la gente a quien le gusta husmear...
- Tenemos que crear software para proteger nuestra privacidad. Este software todavÃa no existe porque no hay demanda, pero en el futuro la gente estará tan cansada de criminales y husmeadores que pagarán dinero para proteger sus emails y su privacidad.

-¿Lograremos conquistar el espacio como en Star Trek?
-La potencia de los cohetes, como la de los ordenadores, se dobla cada 18 meses. Pero ponerte a ti mismo en órbito costarÃa tu peso en oro. Es mucho dinero y es algo que no ha cambiado mucho en los últimos 50 años. Viajar por el espacio sigue siendo muy caro. Asà que sólo los grandes paÃses pueden lanzar cosas al espacio.

-Todos estos avances precisan de energÃa. ¿De donde saldrá?
-La gasolina sigue siendo la fuente de energÃa más efectiva. Es barata pero es muy rica: potencia solar concentrada desde la época de los dinosaurios.

-Pero se está acabando…
-En quince años todavÃa habrá caos en el mercado, sin ningún reemplazo para el petróleo. Pero cada año la energÃa solar baja de precio y la energÃa del petróleo, en promedio, sube. En unos 15 o 20 años se producirá el cruce: la energÃa solar será más barata. En ese punto entrarán las fuerzas del mercado: si la energÃa solar es más barata, porqué no pasarse a ella...
- A mediados de siglo, hacia el 2040 o 2050, la fusión será una posibilidad real. Los franceses y los americanos ya están investigando su poder: el poder del sol en la tierra. Los franceses quieren construir en el 2018 el reactor por fusión ITER y en Estados Unidos ya tenemos un laboratorio de fusión por láser. Asà que a mediados de siglo creo que adoptaremos la fusión...
- El agua del mar se convertirá en la fuente de la energÃa, ya que es lo que se utiliza para la fusión. Un litro de agua de mar equivaldrá a cientos de litros de gasolina...