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La crisis financiera está,sigue y prosigue/World Economic Forum/'Davos'

El World Economic Forum prevé una "larga sombra" tras la crisis financiera
Lejos de emprender la recuperación, el World Economic Forum asegura en su informe anual que, a causa de los malos,torpes Gobiernos, la economía mundial sigue en crisis y que hay riesgo incluso de que empeore durante el año 2010.

Informe de Riesgos Globales 2010


* Documento: Informe de Riesgos Globales 2010

Todos los años el World Economic Forum, una organización independiente y sin ánimo de lucro con sede en Suiza, realiza un informe previo a la reunión que mantiene con periodicidad anual en la ciudad de Davos. Este documento, conocido como Global Risk Report (Informe de riesgos globales) es el papel principal con el que trabajan los analistas del Forum durante la reunión. Se realiza en cooperación con firmas financieras como Swiss Re, Zurich Financial Services, Citigroup y Marsh & McLennan.

En el del año 2010, el World Economic Forum no ve recuperación económica por ningún lado, sino todo lo contrario, los riesgos de una profundización en la crisis son ubícuos. Las principales amenazas que se ciernen sobre el mundo vuelven a ser, por tercer año consecutivo, de naturaleza económica y tocan de lleno a la pésima gestión de la crisis por parte de la mayoria de los Gobiernos del mundo.

La deuda pública desatada

El primero de ellos es el sobre endeudamiento de los estados. En respuesta a la crisis financiera muchos gobiernos lanzaron costosos planes de estímulo con dinero público que les ha llevado a endeudarse hasta niveles insostenibles.
El crecimiento de la deuda soberana dará lugar a la quiebra soberana de los que más han pedido prestado y a una subida de los tipos de interés reales, no los que fijan los bancos centrales para sus respectivas divisas.

Infraestructuras

A pesar de que los estados han emitido deuda en grandes cantidades, el World Economic Forum señala que en estos años de crisis se ha desatendido la inversión en infraestructuras.
Muchos estudios internacionales señalan que buena parte de las infraestructuras de transporte de agua, gas o petróleo son deficientes y están quedándose obsoletas. Lo mismo puede decirse de las infraestructuras de transporte.

Enfermedades

Las enfermedades crónicas son el tercer gran riesgo para el mundo en su conjunto. Dolencias como la diabetes, el cáncer, los problemas cardiovasculares o respiratorios siguen extendiéndose por el mundo con el consiguiente incremento en los gastos sanitarios y reduciendo la productividad. Estas enfermedades afectan tanto a los países desarrollados y al tercer mundo.

Depreciación de activos

La depreciación de activos, que se mantendrá durante 2010, pone en evidencia, según los analistas, la nula efectividad de las medidas tomadas por los gobiernos y los bancos centrales para combatir la crisis.
Los expertos consultados muestran gran preocupación por el impacto de la recesión en grandes áreas de la economía.

La quiebra de empresas continúa en todo el planeta, cebándose especialmente en las pequeñas y medianas.
La tasa de morosidad de las tarjetas de crédito está en máximos históricos y el desempleo alcanza tasas de más del 10% en Estados Unidos, cuando el máximo que ciertas empresas de crédito como Visa o MasterCard consideran asumible es el 6,5%.

Aunque en Estados Unidos se ha pinchado la burbuja inmobiliaria con la subsiguiente caída en picado de los precios, la preocupación persiste entre los analistas por el mercado inmobiliario, sometido a un ajuste brutal. Se calcula que el pico de oferta inmobiliaria en los mercados sacudidos por la burbuja llegará entre 2011 y 2013.

Los peligros de China

China parece haber sorteado bien los bajíos de la crisis financiera, pero no por ello está libre de riesgos. Gran parte de su crecimiento se ha debido a la expansión crediticia del Banco Popular de China, lo que implica una asignación errónea de factores de capital que pueden provocar una burbuja en los activos financieros y la propiedad inmobiliaria.

El Gobierno chino tiene que vérselas para incrementar la demanda interna que supla la caída de exportaciones al tiempo que mantiene estable el yuan dada las inmensas reservas de divisas que posee. El hecho es que, si el crecimiento del PIB chino bajase del 6%, Pekín y el mundo se verían en un serio problema.

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Re: Palabras encadenadas/World Economic Forum/Davos,Switzerland..

e World Economic Forum (WEF) is a Geneva-based non-profit foundation best known for its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland which brings together top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world including health and the environment.
The Forum also organizes the "Annual Meeting of the New Champions" in China and a series of regional meetings throughout the year.
In 2008 those regional meetings included meetings on Europe and Central Asia, East Asia, the Russia CEO Roundtable, Africa, the Middle East, and the World Economic Forum on Latin America. In 2008 it launched the "Summit on the Global Agenda" in Dubai.

The World Economic Forum was founded in 1971 by Klaus M. Schwab, a business professor in Switzerland.[1] Beyond meetings, the Forum produces a series of research reports and engages its members in sector specific initiatives.[2]

* 1 Organization

* The Forum is headquartered in Cologny, Geneva, Switzerland. In 2006 the Forum opened regional offices in Beijing, China and New York, USA. It is impartial and not-for-profit and is not tied to any political, partisan or national interests. It has observer status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council and is under the supervision of the Swiss Federal Government.
Its highest governance body is the Foundation Board consisting of 22 members including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Queen Rania of Jordan. The Forum’s mission is "committed to improving the State of the World".[3]

During the five-day Annual meeting in 2009, over 2,500 participants from 91 countries will gather in Davos. Around 75% are business leaders, drawn principally from the Forum's members – 1,000 of the foremost companies from around the world and across economic sectors.

More than 1,170 CEOs and chairpersons from the world’s leading companies are participating in 2009.

Other major categories of participants from around the world include: 219 public figures, including 40 heads of state or government, 64 cabinet ministers, 30 heads or senior officials of international organizations and 10 ambassadors. More than 432 participants from civil society including 32 heads or representatives of non-governmental organizations, 225 media leaders, 149 leaders from academic institutions and think tanks, 15 religious leaders of different faiths and 11 union leaders.[4]

Membership

The Forum is funded by its 1000 member companies. The typical member company is a global enterprise with more than five billion dollars in turnover, although the latter can vary by industry and region. In addition, these enterprises rank among the top companies within their industry and/or country and play a leading role in shaping the future of their industry and/or region. As of 2005, each member company pays a basic annual membership fee of CHF 42,500 and a CHF 18,000 Annual Meeting fee which covers the participation of its CEO at the Annual Meeting in Davos. Industry Partners and Strategic Partners pay CHF 250,000 and CHF 500,000 respectively allowing them to play a greater role in the Forum’s initiatives.[5][6]

In addition, these enterprises rank among the top companies within their industry and/or country (generally based on turnover in millions of US dollars; for financial institutions the criteria is based on assets) and play a leading role in shaping the future of their industry and/or region, as judged by the Forum's selection committee.

Industry Partners come from a broad range of business sectors, including construction, aviation, technology, tourism, food and beverage, engineering, and financial services. These companies are alert to the global issues that most affect their specific industry sector.

Activities

Annual Meeting in Davos

The Forum’s flagship event is the Annual Meeting held every year at the end of January in Davos.[7] The meeting in the Swiss alpine resort brings together CEOs from the Forum’s 1000 member companies as well as selected politicians, representatives from academia, NGOs, religious leaders and the media.[8] Participation at the Annual Meeting is by invitation only. Around 2200 participants gather for the five-day event and attend some 220 sessions in the official programme. The discussions focus around key issues of global concern (such as international conflicts, poverty and environmental problems) and possible solutions.[2] In all about 500 journalists from online, print, radio and TV take part in the Annual Meeting. The media has access to all of the sessions in the official program, some of which are also webcast.[9]

All plenary debates from Davos are also available on YouTube,[10] pictures are available for free at Flickr[11] and the key quotes are available on Twitter.[12] In 2007 the Forum opened pages on social media platforms such as MySpace[13] and Facebook.[14] At the Annual Meeting 2009 the Forum invited the general public to participate in the Davos Debates on YouTube [15][16] allowing one user to attend the Annual Meeting in person. In 2008 the Davos Question on YouTube[17] allowed YouTube users to interact with the world leaders gathered in Davos who were encouraged to reply from a YouTube Video Corner at the congress centre.[18] In 2008 press conferences are live streamed on Qik[19] and Mogulus[20] allowing anyone to put questions to the speakers. In 2006 and 2007 selected participants were interviewed in, and the closing session was streamed into, Reuters’ auditorium in Second Life.[21]

Participants

In 2008, some 250 public figures (head of state or government, cabinet ministers, ambassadors, heads or senior officials of international organization) attended the Annual Meeting, including: Abdoulaye Wade, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Álvaro Uribe Vélez, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Ban Ki-moon, Condoleezza Rice, Ferenc Gyurcsany, François Fillon, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Gordon Brown, Hamid Karzai, Ilham Aliyev, Jan Peter Balkenende, Lee Bollinger, Lee Hsien Loong, Pervez Musharraf, Queen Rania of Jordan, Robert McGregor, Ruth Simmons, Salam Fayyad, Sali Berisha,Serzh Sargsyan, Shimon Peres, Umaru Musa Yar'adua, Valdas Adamkus, Yasuo Fukuda, Viktor A. Yushchenko and Zeng Peiyan.[22]

Al Gore, Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Michael Wolf, Bono, Paulo Coelho and Tony Blair are also regular Davos attendees. Past attendees include Angela Merkel, Dmitry Medvedev, Henry Kissinger, Nelson Mandela, Raymond Barre, Julian Lloyd Webber and Yasser Arafat.

The participants at the Annual Meeting were described as “Davos Man” by Samuel Huntington, referring to a global elite whose members view themselves as completely international.[23][24]

Annual Meeting of the New Champions

In 2007, the Forum established the “Annual Meeting of the New Champions” (also called "Summer Davos") held annually in China. The event has alternated between Dalian and Tianjin each year and brings together 1,500 influential stakeholders. This is a meeting for what the Forum calls the “Global Growth Companies”. These are business champions primarily from rapidly growing emerging countries, such as China, India, Russia, Mexico, and Brazil but also including fast movers from developed countries. The meeting also engages with the next generation of global leaders, fast-growing regions, competitive cities and technology pioneers from around the globe.[25][26] Premier Wen Jiabao has delivered a plenary address at previous sessions.

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Re: CHINA:1º en turbinas eólicas,paneles solares..1mercado de equipamiento energético

TIANJIN, China.- En 2009, China se puso a la cabeza de sus antiguos competidores -Dinamarca, Alemania, España y Estados Unidos- al convertirse en el mayor productor mundial de turbinas eólicas, y está preparada para expandirse aún más durante el presente año.

En los últimos dos años, China también dejó a atrás a Occidente en la fabricación de paneles solares y se posicionó como el mayor fabricante del mundo. El país también pone gran empeño en la construcción de reactores nucleares y las más eficientes centrales eléctricas de combustión de carbón.

Esos esfuerzos para dominar la tecnología de las energías renovables plantean la posibilidad de que en un futuro Occidente deje de depender del petróleo de Medio Oriente para volcarse en los paneles solares, turbinas eólicas y otros equipos de fabricación china.

"La mayoría de los equipos de energía llevarán la inscripción Made in China ", aseguró K. K. Chan, director ejecutivo de Nature Elements Capital, un fondo de capital privado de Pekín abocado a las energías renovables.

En su discurso ante el Congreso sobre el Estado de la Unión, la semana pasada, el presidente Barack Obama dio la voz de alarma, al señalar que, en materia energética, Estados Unidos se está rezagando frente al avance de otros países, especialmente de China: "No puedo aceptar un futuro en el que el empleo y las industrias del mañana se afinquen fuera de nuestras fronteras, y sé que ustedes tampoco", dijo ante el Congreso.

Estados Unidos y otros países han comenzado a ofrecer incentivos para el desarrollo de sus propias industrias de energía renovable, y Obama hizo un llamado para redoblar los esfuerzos en ese sector.

Sin embargo, muchos ejecutivos chinos y occidentales pronostican que China ganará la carrera de tecnologías energéticas. En esa carrera, el país asiático cuenta con la ventaja de ser el mayor mercado mundial de equipamiento energético.

Las corporaciones multinacionales han respondido al veloz crecimiento del mercado de China con la construcción de grandes fábricas en territorio chino.

La danesa Vestas acaba de completar aquí, en el nordeste de China, el mayor complejo manufacturero de turbinas eólicas del mundo y ha transferido la tecnología para construir generadores y controladores electrónicos de última generación.

"Hay que moverse rápido, al ritmo del mercado", aseguró Jens Tommercup, presidente de Vestas China. "Jamás se ha visto un desarrollo tan vertiginoso en el mercado de la tecnología eólica", añadió.

La industria de las tecnologías renovables está sumando mano de obra rápidamente. Según la Asociación China de Industrias de Energías Renovables, en 2008 el sector ocupaba a 1.200.000 trabajadores, y la cifra crece a un ritmo de 100.000 empleados por año.

El gobierno chino espera que para 2020, el 8% de la energía que produce el país provenga del viento, el sol y la biomasa. En la actualidad, en China y Estados Unidos esa producción es inferior al 4%. En cualquier caso, la energía de carbón seguirá representando en 2020 las dos terceras partes de la capacidad total de China, y la mayor parte del resto será de origen nuclear e hidroeléctrico.

Prioridad central

La política energética es una prioridad central de los máximos dirigentes chinos. El gobierno anunció la semana pasada la creación de la Comisión Nacional de Energía, un "superministerio" integrado por miembros del consejo de ministros y encabezado por el propio primer ministro, Wen Jiabao.

La principal ventaja de China quizás sea su demanda interna de electricidad, que crece a un ritmo del 15% al año. Para cubrir esa demanda en la década en ciernes y según las estadísticas de la Agencia Internacional de Energía, China deberá aumentar su capacidad de generación energética casi nueve veces más que Estados Unidos.

Así que mientras los estadounidenses suelen pensar que tienen el mercado más grande del mundo en muchas industrias, el mercado chino de equipamiento energético eclipsa holgadamente al de Estados Unidos, si bien es cierto que el mercado norteamericano es más maduro.

En Estados Unidos, con frecuencia las empresas de energía se enfrentan a la disyuntiva de adquirir equipos de energía renovable o seguir operando plantas que se alimentan con hidrocarburos que ya han comprado, pagado, y ya están construidas.
En China, por su parte, las empresas de energía tienen que comprar grandes cantidades de equipo nuevo todo el tiempo para satisfacer el imparable aumento de la demanda, y las energías alternativas, en especial la eólica y la nuclear, tienen precios cada vez más competitivos.

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Disipando ENIGMAS con INTELIGENCIA:Global Risk Report 2010...

Global Risk Report 2010
Published 14 January 2010

Click here to view the interactive Risks Interconnection MapWarnings of the long shadow of the financial crisis
The result of extensive input throughout the previous year by experts from business, academia, and the public sector, Global Risks 2010 highlights a number of slow-moving risks exacerbated by the financial crisis and global economic downturn, and stresses the continued need to further enhance global resilience to risks.
Global governance gaps, an issue already to the fore in Global Risks 2009, continues to be at the nexus of global risks and the need for coordinated global action is increasingly urgent.

Fiscal crises and unemployment, underinvestment in infrastructure and chronic disease are identified as the pivotal areas of risk over the next years. At the same time, the Report warns that there are also a number of risks to keep on the radar, including the economic and social costs of transnational crime and corruption, biodiversity losses and risks to critical systems from cybervulnerability.

Full report (PDF) Risks Interconnections Map

The Report suggests that the events of the past year have highlighted the systemic nature of global risks and the need to rethink how to manage and respond to them.
Reverting to “business as usual” could have serious implications in the long term in several risk areas. This reflects the premise at the core of the Global Risk Network’s work that global risks do not manifest themselves in isolation.

Biodiversity and Business Risk

In collaboration with PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Thought Leadership group, the Global Risk Network presents a briefing for business leaders on the implications of biodiversity loss. With an overview of key facts and trends, this briefing will serve as a framework for all those taking a strategic view of this issue.


View the report (PDF)

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Planificación con ESCENARIOS (Scenario planning,thinking or analysis)

According to Professor Azmi, Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces.

In business applications, the emphasis on gaming the behavior of opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature). At Royal Dutch/Shell for example, scenario planning was viewed as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world, prior to formulating specific strategies.

Scenario planning may involve aspects of Systems thinking, specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures (due to non-linear feedback loops). The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, unprecedented regulations or inventions. Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario story lines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated. In these cases when scenario planning is integrated with a systems thinking approach to scenario development, it is sometimes referred to as structural dynamics.

* 1 Crafting scenarios

o These combinations and permutations of fact and related social changes are called "scenarios."
The scenarios usually include plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day.
Any particular scenario is unlikely. However, future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable.
Scenario planning helps policy-makers to anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilities in organizations and methods.

When disclosed years in advance, these weaknesses can be avoided or their impacts reduced more effectively than if similar real-life problems were considered under duress of an emergency. For example, a company may discover that it needs to change contractual terms to protect against a new class of risks, or collect cash reserves to purchase anticipated technologies or equipment.
Flexible business continuity plans with "PREsponse protocols" help cope with similar operational problems and deliver measurable future value-added.

Zero-sum game scenarios

Strategic military intelligence organizations also construct scenarios. The methods and organizations are almost identical, except that scenario planning is applied to a wider variety of problems than merely military and political problems.

As in military intelligence, the chief challenge of scenario planning is to find out the real needs of policy-makers, when policy-makers may not themselves know what they need to know, or may not know how to describe the information that they really want.

Good analysts design wargames so that policy makers have great flexibility and freedom to adapt their simulated organizations. Then these simulated organizations are "stressed" by the scenarios as a game plays out. Usually, particular groups of facts become more clearly important. These insights enable intelligence organizations to refine and repackage real information more precisely to better-serve the policy-makers' real-life needs. Usually the games' simulated time runs hundreds of times faster than real life, so policy-makers experience several years of policy decisions, and their simulated effects, in less than a day.

This chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life. Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a safe, unthreatening, game-like environment, while responding to a wide variety of concretely-presented situations based on facts. This is an opportunity to "rehearse the future," an opportunity that does not present itself in day-to-day operations where every action and decision counts.

How military scenario planning or scenario thinking is done

1. Decide on the key question to be answered by the analysis. By doing this, it is possible to assess whether scenario planning is preferred over the other methods. If the question is based on small changes or a very few number of elements, other more formalized methods may be more useful.
2. Set the time and scope of the analysis. Take into consideration how quickly changes have happened in the past, and try to assess to what degree it is possible to predict common trends in demographics, product life cycles et al. A usual timeframe can be five to 10 years.
3. Identify major stakeholders. Decide who will be affected and have an interest in the possible outcomes. Identify their current interests, whether and why these interests have changed over time in the past.
4. Map basic trends and driving forces. This includes industry, economic, political, technological, legal and societal trends. Assess to what degree these trends will affect your research question. Describe each trend, how and why it will affect the organisation. In this step of the process, brainstorming is commonly used, where all trends that can be thought of are presented before they are assessed, to capture possible group thinking and tunnel vision.
5. Find key uncertainties. Map the driving forces on two axes, assessing each force on an uncertain/(relatively) predictable and important/unimportant scale. All driving forces that are considered unimportant are discarded. Important driving forces that are relatively predictable (f.ex. demographics) can be included in any scenario, so the scenarios should not be based on these. This leaves you with a number of important and unpredictable driving forces. At this point, it is also useful to assess whether any linkages between driving forces exist, and rule out any "impossible" scenarios (f.ex. full employment and zero inflation).
6. Check for the possibility to group the linked forces and if possible, reduce the forces to the two most important. (To allow the scenarios to be presented in a neat xy-diagram)
7. Identify the extremes of the possible outcomes of the (two) driving forces and check the dimensions for consistency and plausibility. Three key points should be assessed:
1. Time frame: are the trends compatible within the time frame in question?
2. Internal consistency: do the forces describe uncertainties that can construct probable scenarios.
3. Vs the stakeholders: are any stakeholders currently in disequilibrium compared to their preferred situation, and will this evolve the scenario? Is it possible to create probable scenarios when considering the stakeholders? This is most important when creating macro-scenarios where governments, large organisations et al. will try to influence the outcome.
8. Define the scenarios, plotting them on a grid if possible. Usually, 2 to 4 scenarios are constructed. The current situation does not need to be in the middle of the diagram (inflation may already be low), and possible scenarios may keep one (or more) of the forces relatively constant, especially if using three or more driving forces. One approach can be to create all positive elements into one scenario and all negative elements (relative to the current situation) in another scenario, then refining these. In the end, try to avoid pure best-case and worst-case scenarios.
9. Write out the scenarios. Narrate what has happened and what the reasons can be for the proposed situation. Try to include good reasons why the changes have occurred as this helps the further analysis. Finally, give each scenario a descriptive (and catchy) name to ease later reference.
10. Assess the scenarios. Are they relevant for the goal? Are they internally consistent? Are they archetypical? Do they represent relatively stable outcome situations?
11. Identify research needs. Based on the scenarios, assess where more information is needed. Where needed, obtain more information on the motivations of stakeholders, possible innovations that may occur in the industry and so on.
12. Develop quantitative methods. If possible, develop models to help quantify consequences of the various scenarios, such as growth rate, cash flow etc. This step does of course require a significant amount of work compared to the others, and may be left out in back-of-the-envelope-analyses.
13. Converge towards decision scenarios. Retrace the steps above in an iterative process until you reach scenarios which address the fundamental issues facing the organization. Try to assess upsides and downsides of the possible scenarios.

Scenario planning in military applications

Scenario planning is also extremely popular with military planners. Most states' departments of war maintain a continuously-updated series of strategic plans to cope with well-known military or strategic problems. These plans are almost always based on scenarios, and often the plans and scenarios are kept up-to-date by war games, sometimes played out with real troops. This process was first carried out (arguably the method was invented by) the Prussian general staff of the mid-19th century.

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Re: Planificación con ESCENARIOS en empresas/Scenario analysis in business organizati

Development of scenario analysis in business organizations

In the past, strategic plans have often considered only the "official future," which was usually a straight-line graph of current trends carried into the future. Often the trend lines were generated by the accounting department, and lacked discussions of demographics, or qualitative differences in social conditions.

These simplistic guesses are surprisingly good most of the time, but fail to consider qualitative social changes that can affect a business or government.
Scenarios focus on the joint effect of many factors.
Scenario planning helps us understand how the various strands of a complex tapestry move if one or more threads are pulled. When you just list possible causes, as for instance in fault tree analysis, you may tend to discount any one factor in isolation. But when you explore the factors together, you realize that certain combinations could magnify each other’s impact or likelihood. For instance, an increased trade deficit may trigger an economic recession, which in turn creates unemployment and reduces domestic production.
Schoemaker offers a strong managerial case for the use of scenario planning in business and had wide impact.[1]

Scenarios planning starts by dividing our knowledge into two broad domains: (1) things we believe we know something about and (2) elements we consider uncertain or unknowable.
The first component – trends – casts the past forward, recognizing that our world possesses considerable momentum and continuity. For example, we can safely make assumptions about demographic shifts and, perhaps, substitution effects for certain new technologies.
The second component – true uncertainties – involve indeterminables such as future interest rates, outcomes of political elections, rates of innovation, fads and fashions in markets, and so on.
The art of scenario planning lies in blending the known and the unknown into a limited number of internally consistent views of the future that span a very wide range of possibilities.

Numerous organizations have applied scenario planning to a broad range of issues, from relatively simple, tactical decisions to the complex process of strategic planning and vision building. [2][3][4]
The power of scenario planning for business was originally established by Royal Dutch/Shell, which has used scenarios since the early 1970s as part of a process for generating and evaluating its strategic options.[5][6] Shell has been consistently better in its oil forecasts than other major oil companies, and saw the overcapacity in the tanker business and Europe’s petrochemicals earlier than its competitors.[2] But ironically, the approach may have had more impact outside Shell than within, as many others firms and consultancies started to benefit as well from scenario planning. Scenario planning is as much art as science, and prone to a variety of traps (both in process and content) as enumerated by Schoemaker .[1]

History of use by academic and commercial organizations

Most authors attribute the introduction of scenario planning to Herman Kahn through his work for the US Military in the 1950s at the RAND corporation where he developed a technique of describing the future in stories as if written by people in the future. He adopted the term "scenarios" to describe these stories. In 1961 he founded the Hudson Institute where he expanded his scenario work to social forecasting and public policy [7][8][9][10][11] One of his most controversial uses of scenarios was to suggest that a nuclear war could be won.
[12] Though Kahn is often cited as the father of scenario planning, at the same time Kahn was developing his methods at RAND, Gaston Berger was developing similar methods at the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives which he founded in France.
His method, which he named 'La Prospective', was to develop normative scenarios of the future which were to be used as a guide in formulating public policy
During the mid 1960s various authors from the French and American institutions began to publish scenario planing concepts such as 'La Prospective' by Berger in 1964[13] and 'The Next Thirty-Three Years' by Kahn and Wiener in 1967 [14]
By the 1970s scenario planning was in full swing with a number of institutions now established to provide support to business including the Hudson Foundation, the Stanford Research Institute, and the SEMA Metra Consulting Group in France.
Several large companies also began to embrace scenario planning including Dutch Royal Shell and General Electric. [11] [15][8][16].

Possibly as a result of these very sophisticated approaches, and of the difficult techniques they employed (which usually demanded the resources of a central planning staff), scenarios earned a reputation for difficulty (and cost) in use.
Even so, the theoretical importance of the use of alternative scenarios, to help address the uncertainty implicit in long-range forecasts, was dramatically underlined by the widespread confusion which followed the Oil Shock of 1973.
As a result many of the larger organizations started to use the technique in one form or another.
By 1983 Diffenbach reported that 'alternate scenarios' were the third most popular technique for long-range forecasting - used by 68% of the large organizations he surveyed.[17]

Practical development of scenario forecasting, to guide strategy rather than for the more limited academic uses which had previously been the case, was started by Wack in 1971 at the Royal Dutch Shell group of companies - and it, too, was given impetus by the Oil Shock two years later.
Shell has, since that time, led the commercial world in the use of scenarios - and in the development of more practical techniques to support these. Indeed, as - in common with most forms of long-range forecasting - the use of scenarios has (during the depressed trading conditions of the last decade) reduced to only a handful of private-sector organisations, Shell remains almost alone amongst them in keeping the technique at the forefront of forecasting.[18]

There has only been anecdotal evidence offered in support of the value of scenarios, even as aids to forecasting; and most of this has come from one company - Shell.
In addition, with so few organisations making consistent use of them - and with the timescales involved reaching into decades - it is unlikely that any definitive supporting evidenced will be forthcoming in the foreseeable future. For the same reasons, though, a lack of such proof applies to almost all long-range planning techniques. In the absence of proof, but taking account of Shell's well documented experiences of using it over several decades (where, in the 1990s, its then CEO ascribed its success to its use of such scenarios), can be significant benefit to be obtained from extending the horizons of managers' long-range forecasting in the way that the use of scenarios uniquely does. [19]

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Uso de ESCENARIOS (Use of SCENARIOS)...

Use of scenarios

It is important to note that scenarios may be used in a number of ways:

a) Containers for the drivers/event strings

Most basically, they are a logical device, an artificial framework, for presenting the individual factors/topics (or coherent groups of these) so that these are made easily available for managers' use - as useful ideas about future developments in their own right - without reference to the rest of the scenario.
It should be stressed that no factors should be dropped, or even given lower priority, as a result of producing the scenarios.
In this context, which scenario contains which topic (driver), or issue about the future, is irrelevant.

b) Tests for consistency

At every stage it is necessary to iterate, to check that the contents are viable and make any necessary changes to ensure that they are; here the main test is to see if the scenarios seem to be internally consistent - if they are not then the writer must loop back to earlier stages to correct the problem.
Though it has been mentioned previously, it is important to stress once again that scenario building is ideally an iterative process.
It usually does not just happen in one meeting - though even one attempt is better than none - but takes place over a number of meetings as the participants gradually refine their ideas.

c) Positive perspectives

Perhaps the main benefit deriving from scenarios, however, comes from the alternative 'flavours' of the future their different perspectives offer. It is a common experience, when the scenarios finally emerge, for the participants to be startled by the insight they offer - as to what the general shape of the future might be - at this stage it no longer is a theoretical exercise but becomes a genuine framework (or rather set of alternative frameworks) for dealing with that.

Scenario planning compared to other techniques

Scenario planning differs from contingency planning, sensitivity analysis and computer simulations.[23]

Contingency planning is a "What if" tool, that only takes into account one uncertainty. However, scenario planning considers combinations of uncertainties in each scenario. Planners also try to select especially plausible but uncomfortable combinations of social developments.

Sensitivity analysis analyzes changes in one variable only, which is useful for simple changes, while scenario planning tries to expose policy makers to significant interactions of major variables.

While scenario planning can benefit from computer simulations, scenario planning is less formalized, and can be used to make plans for qualitative patterns that show up in a wide variety of simulated events.

Useful development programmes include Oxford Scenarios Programme www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/execed/strategy/scenarios

During the past 5 years, computer supported Morphological Analysis has been employed as aid in scenario development by the Swedish Defence Research Agency in Stockholm.[25] This method makes it possible to create a multi-variable morphological field which can be treated as an inference model – thus integrating scenario planning techniques with contingency analysis and sensitivity analysis.

References

1. ^ a b Schoemaker, Paul J.H. “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking,” Sloan Management Review. Winter: 1995, pp. 25-40.
2. ^ a b c Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. Doubleday, 1991.
3. ^ a b van der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Wiley & Sons, 1996.
4. ^ Ringland, Gil. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Wiley & Sons, 1998.
5. ^ Wack, Pierre. "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead", Harvard Business Review. September-October, 1985.
6. ^ Schoemaker, Paul J.H. and Cornelius A.J.M. van der Heijden, "Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell," Planning Review. Vol. 20 (3): 1992, pp.41-46.
7. ^ "Herman Kahn." The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition. 2008. Retrieved November 30, 2009 from Encyclopedia.com: http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1E1-Kahn-Her.html
8. ^ a b Chermack, Thomas J., Susan A. Lynham, and Wendy E. A. Ruona. "A Review of Scenario Planning Literature." Futures Research Quarterly 7 2 (2001): 7-32.
9. ^ Lindgren, Mats, and Hans Bandhold. Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy. New York: Palgrave McMillan, 2003.
10. ^ Schwartz, Peter. . The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991.
11. ^ a b Bradfield, Ron, et al. "The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning." Futures 37 8 (2005): 795-812.
12. ^ Kahn, Herman. Thinking About the Unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press, 1965.
13. ^ Berger, G. "Phénoménologies du Temps et Prospectives." Presse Universitaires de France, 1964.
14. ^ Kahn, Herman, and Anthony J. Wiener. "The Next Thirty-Three Years: A Framework for Speculation." Daedalus 96 3 (1967): 705-32.
15. ^ Godet, Michel, and Fabrice Roubelat. "Creating the Future :The Use and Misuse of Scenarios." Long Range Planning 29 2 (1996): 164-71.
16. ^ Godet, Michel, Fabrice Roubelat, and Guest Editors. "Scenario Planning: An Open Future." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 1 (2000): 1-2.
17. ^ Diffenbach, John. "Corporate Environmental Analysis in Large US Corporations," Long Range Planning. 16 (3), 1983.
18. ^ Peter Cornelius, Alexander Van de Putte and Mattia Romani. "Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell", California Management Review, Nov. 2005
19. ^ a b Mercer, David. "Simpler Scenarios," Management Decision. Vol. 33 Issue 4:1995, pp 32-40.
20. ^ Fahey, Liam and Randall, Robert M. Learning from the Future. Wiley & Sons, 1998.
21. ^ Schoemaker, Paul J.H. “Multiple Scenario Developing: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Basis,” Strategic Management Journal. Vol. 14: 1993, pp 193-213.
22. ^ Schoemaker, Paul J.H. “Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning,” in Learning from the Future. Wiley & Sons, 1998, pp 422-431.
23. ^ a b Schoemaker, Paul J.H. Profiting from Uncertainty. Free Press, 2002.
24. ^ Backoff, R.W. and P.C. Nutt. "A Process for Strategic Management with Specific Application for the Non-Profit Organization," Strategic Planning: Threats and Opportunities for Planners. Planners Press, 1988.
25. ^ T. Eriksson & T. Ritchey, "Scenario Development using Computer Aided Morphological Analysis,". http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/cornwallis3.pdf. Adapted from a Paper Presented at the Winchester International OR Conference, England, 2002.

External links

* Wikifutures wiki; Scenario page -- wiki also includes several scenarios (GFDL licensed)
* Scenario Planning -- How to start with Scenario Planning Process?
* ScenarioDevelopment -- Example of a firm dedicated to building multistakeholder scenarios.
* Scenario Planning Resources -- A collection of scenario planning resources and links
* Scenariothinking.org -- Open community on scenario thinking and planning

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Re: Yo veo un México con hambre y con sed de justicia

Cualquier'analista político'puede y hasta suele afirmar eso de que'yo veo un México con hambre y sed de justicia',sin decir porque,cuando y como llego a esa'visión'...

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Re: Pronostico..del clima en el DF hasta el jueves

Lluvia y frío seguirán hasta el jueves en DF
Las condiciones meteorológicas hacen que algunas zonas tengan sol, otras lloviznas y otras más una brisa fría, y se deben a que del Océano Pacífico entró humedad en forma de nubes, que cubre gran parte del territorio

Lluvia y frío seguirán hasta el jueves en DF

SEGUIRÁ HÚMEDO EL DF. Será hasta mediados de semana cuando la temperatura aumente, en tanto los capitalinos deberán sacar abrigos y paraguas, porque seguirán las lluvias y el aire frío

o El frío con lloviznas en la ciudad de México, combinadas con algunos rayos de sol, seguirán hasta mediados de semana, previó el meteorólogo operativo Marco Antonio Lugo Garduño.

El clima, que hace que algunas zonas del Distrito Federal tengan sol, otras lloviznas y otras más ambos con una brisa fría, se deben a que del Océano Pacífico entró humedad en forma de nubes, que cubre gran parte del territorio, explicó el especialista del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional.

Esas nubes impiden la llegada de la radiación solar, pero al mismo tiempo el cielo se despeja por una masa de aire que recorre el país debida al frente frío 28.

"Esperamos que estas condiciones se mantengan hasta mediados de la semana, comenzando una gradual recuperación de temperaturas diurnas a partir del jueves", pronosticó.

Por eso aunque el aire se lleve las nubes y haya sol, el frío persistirá.

"En estos días las condiciones serán semejantes con temperaturas mínimas frías en el centro del país y muy frías en el norte especialmente en zonas serranas, con valores menores a menos cinco grados en la sierra de Chihuahua y Durango".

La temporada invernal está a punto de terminar, de los entre 35 y 40 fríos calculados, el que recorre el país es el 28, dijo Lugo Garduño. Esperan que terminen en la primera quincena de febrero, y podrían ir acompañados de lluvia, concluyó el especialista...

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Re: México entre ríos de sangre...hay,habra sobreproducción de MORONGA!!!

¡Sangre..sangre..sangre..!!
¿Triunfara el vampirismo?

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Re: 10 de los GRANDES RIOS del mundo agonizan!!

Si eso sucede con 10 de los grandes rios del mundo,¿que será de tantos y tantos pequeños,como por ejemplo el rio Churubusco y el rio Mixcoac?

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Re: La Sangre de Cristo Jesús...con la magia de la consagraciön,se vuelve vino tinto!

Dicen'fuentes autorizadas'que el tan traido y llevado'vino de consagrar'se vuelve'la sangre'de nada menos que la del celebre y ya difunto procer judio conocido como Cristo Jesus...!!!

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Re: ¡Ciudad de México entre las más baratas del mundo!!

Con razón dicen que en Mx.'la vida no vale nada'

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Re: Lo bueno es que los narcos nada más están de paso en la Ciudad de México....

En México,DF la vida no vale nada!!!
Ni le importa a nadie...

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Re: La voz de los foristas debe llegar allá arriba,a las ELITES del PODER!!

Asamblea Anual en Davos de las ELITES del PODER/Foro Económico Mundial

Temas centrales de la Asamblea Anual

* 1991: La nueva dirección para el liderazgo
* 1992: Cooperación y megacompetición
* 1993: La recuperación global
* 1994: Redefinición de los puntos básicos de la globalización
* 1995: Desafíos más allá del crecimiento
* 1996: Globalización de la economía mundial
* 1997: Construyendo la sociedad de la Red
* 1998: Prioridades para el siglo XXI. Crisis asiática y el nacimiento del euro
* 1999: El impacto de la globalización (Pacto Global)
* 2000: Internet y la ingeniería genética
* 2001: ¿Cómo mantener el crecimiento y crear puentes que termine con las divisiones?: un marco de acción para el futuro global
* 2002: El liderazgo en tiempo de fragilidad: una visión para un futuro común
* 2003: Construyendo confianza
* 2004: Asociarse para la Prosperidad y la Seguridad
* 2005: Decisiones contundentes para los tiempos difíciles
* 2006: Compartiendo seguridad y prosperidad
* 2007: El imperativo de la creatividad

El evento representativo del Foro es la Asamblea Anual que se lleva a cabo a fines de enero en Davos. [7]
La asamblea en el complejo turístico de los alpes suizos reúne a los Directores Ejecutivos de las 1000 empresas miembro del Foro, además de políticos selectos, representantes de academias, organizaciones no gubernamentales, líderes religiosos y los medios de comunicación.[8]
La participación en la Asamblea Anual es solamente por invitación.
Alrededor de 2200 participantes se reúnen para el evento de cinco días y asisten a aproximadamente 220 sesiones del programa oficial.
Los foros de debate tratan asuntos fundamentales de preocupación global (como conflictos internacionales, pobreza y problemas medioambientales) y sus posibles soluciones.[2]
En total, cerca de 500 periodistas de medios de comunicación en línea, prensa, radio y televisión participan de la Asamblea Anual.
Los medios de comunicación tienen acceso a todas las sesiones del programa oficial, y algunas de ellas se transmiten por Internet.[9]

Todos los debates plenarios de Davos también se encuentran disponibles en YouTube,[10] las fotografías se encuentran disponibles de manera gratuita en Flickr[11] y las citas más importantes se encuentran disponibles en Twitter.[12] En 2007, el Foro abrió páginas en plataformas de medios de comunicación sociales como MySpace[13] y Facebook.[14] Durante la Asamblea Anual de 2009, el Foro invitó al público general a participar de los debates de Davos a través de YouTube[15] [16] y se permitió que un usuario asista en persona a la Asamblea Anual. En 2008, la pregunta de Davos en YouTube[17] permitió que los usuarios de YouTube interaccionen con los líderes mundiales reunidos en Davos y se alentó a dichos líderes a responder desde YouTube Video Corner en el centro del congreso.[18] Desde 2008, las conferencias de prensa del Foro se transmiten en vivo en Qik[19] Mogulus[20] lo que permite a cualquier persona realizar preguntas a los oradores. En 2006 y 2007, se entrevistaron a participantes selectos en el auditorio de Reuters en Second Life y también se transmitió la sesión de cierre por ese medio.[21]

Participantes

En 2008, aproximadamente 250 personalidades públicas (jefes de estado o gobierno, ministros de gabinete, embajadores, directores o funcionarios senior de organizaciones internacionales) asistieron a la Asamblea Anual, entre ellos: Abdoulaye Wade, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Álvaro Uribe Vélez, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Ban Ki-moon, Condoleezza Rice, Ferenc Gyurcsany, François Fillon, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Gordon Brown, Hamid Karzai, Ilham Aliyev, Jan Peter Balkenende, Lee Bollinger, Lee Hsien Loong, Pervez Musharraf, Reina Rania Al Abdullah, Salam Fayyad, Sali Berisha, Shimon Peres, Umaru Musa Yar'adua, Valdas Adamkus, Yasuo Fukuda, Viktor A. Yushchenko y Zeng Peiyan.[22]

Al Gore, Bill Clinton, Bono, Paulo Coelho y Tony Blair (miembro del Consejo de la Fundación del Foro Económico Mundial) también asisten regularmente a Davos. Algunos asistentes anteriores incluyen a Angela Merkel, Dmitry Medvedev, Henry Kissinger, Nelson Mandela, Raymond Barre y Yasser Arafat.

Los participantes de la Asamblea Anual fueron denominados por Samuel Huntington como “Hombres de Davos”, en referencia a la elite global del poder cuyos miembros se consideran completamente internacionales.[23] [24]
Asamblea Anual de Nuevos Campeones [editar]

En 2007, el Foro estableció la “Asamblea Anual de Nuevos Campeones” (también denominada “Davos de Verano”) que se realiza anualmente en China. Ésta es una asamblea para las empresas que el Foro denomina “Empresas de Crecimiento Global”.
Estas son empresas líderes que principalmente pertenecen a países emergentes de rápido crecimiento, como China, India, Rusia y Brasil, pero también incluye empresas de rápido movimiento de países desarrollados.
La asamblea también convoca a la próxima generación de líderes globales, a las regiones de rápido crecimiento, las ciudades competitivas y los pioneros tecnológicos de todo el mundo.[25] [26]

Asambleas regionales

Cada año se llevan a cabo aproximadamente diez asambleas regionales, lo que permite un contacto cercano entre líderes empresariales corporativos, líderes de gobiernos locales y organizaciones no gubernamentales. Las asambleas se realizan en África, Asia Oriental, Latinoamérica y Oriente Medio. La combinación de países anfitriones varía de un año a otro, pero China e India han sido constantes anfitriones durante la última década.[27]

Líderes Jóvenes del Mundo

En 2005, el Foro estableció la comunidad de Líderes Jóvenes del Mundo, que sucedió a la comunidad Líderes Mundiales del Mañana compuesta por líderes de todo el mundo, de menos de 40 años, y de miles de disciplinas y sectores. Los líderes participan de la “Iniciativa 2030”: la creación de un plan de acción para alcanzar la visión de cómo será el mundo en 2030. Entre los Líderes Jóvenes del Mundo se encuentran:[28] Shai Agassi, Anousheh Ansari, Maria Consuelo Araujo, Lera Auerbach, Sergey Brin, Tyler Brûlé, Patrick Chappatte, Olafur Eliasson, Rahul Gandhi, Príncipe Haakon de Noruega, Silvana Koch-Mehrin, Tariq Krim, Irshad Manji, Princesa Matilde de Bélgica, Aditya Mittal, Gavin Newsom, Larry Page, Andrea Sanke, Anoushka Shankar, Peter Thiel, Karim Meïssa Wade, Jimmy Wales, Niklas Zennström, Félix Maradiaga, Matias de Tezanos, entre otros. Anualmente, se seleccionan nuevos miembros.
El número de Líderes Jóvenes del Mundo que conformarán el Foro llegará a 1111 miembros.[29] [30] [31]

Emprendedores sociales

Desde el año 2000, el Foro ha promovido modelos desarrollados por los emprendimiento social líderes del mundo, en estrecha colaboración con la 'Schwab Foundation for Social Entrepreneurship'.[32] La fundación destaca los emprendimientos sociales como elementos fundamentales para el avance de las sociedades y el tratamiento de problemas sociales.[33] [34] Se invita a emprendedores sociales selectos a participar de las asambleas regionales y de las Asambleas Anuales del Foro, en donde tendrán la oportunidad de conocer a directores ejecutivos y funcionarios gubernamentales senior. Durante la Asamblea Anual de 2003, por ejemplo, Jeroo Bilimoria conoció a Roberto Blois, Subsecretario General de la Unión Internacional de Comunicaciones, un encuentro que produjo una asociación fundamental para la organización Child Helpline International.[35]

Informes de investigación

El Foro también funciona como grupo de pensamiento (Think-Tank) y publica una amplia variedad de informes centrados en asuntos de importancia y preocupación para las comunidades del Foro.
En particular, los Equipos de Pensamiento Estratégico del Foro se centran en la producción de informes de importancia en los campos de competitividad, riesgos globales y planificación de situaciones|ideas sobre situaciones.

El Competitiveness Team produce una variedad de informes económicos anuales (primera publicación entre paréntesis): el Informe Global de Competitividad (1979) calcula la competitividad de países y economías; el Informe Global sobre Tecnología de la Información (2001) evalúa la competitividad según la disponibilidad de la TI; el Informe de la Brecha Global de Género (2005) examina áreas críticas de desigualdad entre hombres y mujeres; el Informe Global de Riesgos (2006) evalúa los riesgos globales fundamentales; el Competitividad para Viajes y Turismo (2007) calcula la competitividad de viajes y turismo y el Informe Global de Facilitación del Comercio (2008) presenta un análisis entre países de la gran cantidad de medidas que facilitan el comercio entre las naciones.[36]

La Red Global de Riesgos realiza un informe anual que evalúa los riesgos que se consideran globales, que tienen importancia entre industrias, que son inciertos, que pueden causar daños económicos por más de US$10 000 millones, que pueden causar gran sufrimiento humano y que requieren un enfoque multidisciplinario para poder mitigarse.[37]

El equipo de planificación de situaciones desarrolla una variedad de informes sobre situaciones regionales, centradas en industrias y específicas para ciertos problemas, diseñados para desafiar el razonamiento de los lectores, crear conciencia sobre los factores críticos subyacentes y estimulan ideas nuevas sobre el futuro.[38]
Los recientes informes incluyen una publicación importante sobre los impactos a corto y largo plazo de la crisis financiera global de 2008–2009, El futuro del sistema financiero mundial: una mirada a corto plazo y situaciones a largo plazo y situaciones relacionadas con el impacto de los cambios demográficos en la financiación de planes de pensión y asistencia médica, Financiación de cambios demográficos: Situaciones relacionadas con los planes de pensión y asistencia médica hacia el 2030.

[42